--- title: "Consumer Confidence Plunges to Seven Month Low | Metaintro" canonical: "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/consumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025" language: "en" author: "bradlarson" published: "2025-11-26T11:30:00.000Z" modified: "2025-12-02T16:16:08.765Z" --- [Back to Blog](/blog) [Information](/blog/tag/information)[Layoffs](/blog/tag/layoffs) # Consumer Confidence Plunges to Seven Month Low US consumer confidence crashes to 88.7 in November—lowest since April—as job worries intensify and recession expectations index stays below warning threshold for 10th consecutive month. [![Brad Larson](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:40:40/q:72/plain/images/7bdeb1a3-e576-43bc-b191-7dbbf2908056_1766029465094.png)Brad Larson @followbl](/blog/author/bradlarson) [November 26, 2025](/blog/archive/2025/11)Updated December 2, 202510 min read ![Consumer Confidence Plunges to Seven Month Low](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:675/q:78/plain/images/americansupermarket.png) [https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=Consumer%20Confidence%20Plunges%20to%20Seven%20Month%20Low&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=Consumer%20Confidence%20Plunges%20to%20Seven%20Month%20Low&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025)[http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025](http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025)[https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025&title=Consumer%20Confidence%20Plunges%20to%20Seven%20Month%20Low](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025&title=Consumer%20Confidence%20Plunges%20to%20Seven%20Month%20Low)[mailto:?subject=Consumer%20Confidence%20Plunges%20to%20Seven%20Month%20Low&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025](mailto:?subject=Consumer%20Confidence%20Plunges%20to%20Seven%20Month%20Low&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fconsumer-confidence-plunges-seven-month-low-november-2025) ## Consumer Confidence Plunges to Seven Month Low American consumer confidence just fell off a cliff. The [Conference Board's](https://www.conference-board.org/) Consumer Confidence Index crashed to **88.7 in November**, down **6.8 points from October's 95.5**—the sharpest monthly decline since April and well below the 93.4 that economists expected. "Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. "All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak." The numbers paint a troubling picture of consumer psychology heading into the critical holiday shopping season. Americans are growing increasingly worried about jobs, incomes, and their financial situations—both now and in the future. The government shutdown that recently ended clearly rattled nerves, but deeper anxieties about economic health appear to be taking root. The **Present Situation Index**—measuring consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell **4.3 points to 126.9**. Even more concerning, the **Expectations Index**—based on short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—plunged **8.6 points to 63.2**. That expectations figure matters enormously. It has now tracked **below 80 for ten consecutive months**, well under the threshold that historically signals recession ahead. Month after month of sub-80 readings suggests this isn't temporary jitters—it's sustained pessimism about where the economy is headed. ## The Recession Psychology Deepens For the fourth straight month, **the share of consumers who believe the economy is already in a recession rose**. That perception matters as much as reality because people make spending decisions based on how they feel, not what GDP reports say. Interestingly, the share believing a recession is "very likely" over the next 12 months actually fell slightly in November. But the share saying a recession is "somewhat likely" ticked up. Translation: fewer people think recession is imminent, but more think it's probable. The timeline may be uncertain, but pessimism is spreading. This creates a self-fulfilling dynamic. When consumers believe recession is coming—or already here—they pull back spending. That pullback slows economic growth, which validates their pessimism and encourages further cutbacks. Breaking this cycle requires either dramatic positive economic news or sustained improvements in key indicators. Neither seems imminent. The data cut across economic and demographic groups. Confidence fell among **all political stripes, with the sharpest retreat among independent voters**. By age, consumers **under 35 years old** saw continued improvement on a six-month moving average basis, but confidence for **consumers age 35 and older dipped**. Respondents **55 and over remained the most downbeat** this year. By income, confidence fell for nearly all cohorts after several months of increases. **Consumers earning less than $15,000 was the only bracket where confidence improved**, though they remained the **least optimistic among all income groups**—a particularly troubling detail suggesting those already struggling financially see things getting even worse. ## Labor Market Anxieties Mount The labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" minus those saying jobs are "hard to get"—**dipped again in November after a brief October respite** from year-to-date declines. Just **27.6% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful"** compared to **28.6% in October**. The share reporting jobs are "hard to get" ticked down slightly, but the overall trend shows deteriorating perceptions about job availability. This matches recent employment data showing hiring has cooled dramatically. Payrolls processing firm [ADP](https://www.adp.com/) reported that private companies **shed an average 13,500 jobs over the past four weeks**. "Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative," Peterson noted. "And expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings." That last point deserves emphasis. For half a year, consumers felt increasingly optimistic about their household income prospects. In November, that optimism evaporated. Whatever was building confidence through spring and summer—perhaps hopes about new administration policies or economic momentum—has dissipated. When consumers don't expect their incomes to rise, they pull back on spending. Why buy that new car or upgrade appliances when you're not confident next year will bring a raise? This income pessimism directly threatens consumer spending, which drives roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity. ## Big-Ticket Spending Plans Crater Plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months **declined in November following little change since May**. After staging a mild comeback from early-summer lows, **expectations for purchasing cars ticked downward for both new and used vehicles**. This matches analysis from [Cox Automotive](https://www.coxautomotive.com/) projecting slower fourth-quarter sales due to increasing prices from President Trump's tariffs. When vehicles cost more and consumers feel uncertain about jobs and incomes, car purchases—typically the second-largest expenditure after housing—get delayed or canceled. **Purchasing plans for household appliances and most electronics also edged lower** in November but remained above 2025 lows. Nonetheless, used cars, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular future purchases among these categories. Consumers still need to replace broken items or upgrade outdated technology, but they're being much more selective. **Homebuying expectations ticked down** in November but remained near two-year highs—a mixed signal reflecting both high housing costs and pent-up demand from buyers who've been waiting for better conditions. Services spending plans also declined. From October to November, **consumers signaled reduced spending on nearly every service category queried**, with just two exceptions: historic sites, museums, and similar cultural activities. Restaurants, travel, entertainment—all saw pullbacks in planned spending. This matters enormously heading into the holiday season. Black Friday kicks off this week, followed by Cyber Monday and the crucial December shopping period. Retailers count on strong November-December sales to make or break their annual performance. If consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending, retailers face a challenging quarter. --- Ad## ✉️ A Note from Metaintro 👇 ⚡ Metaintro isn’t just a job board—it matches jobs to you, not the other way around. [Upload your resume here.](https://www.metaintro.com) --- ## Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated Consumers' **average inflation expectations for the year ahead remained elevated**, with the **median rate increasing to 4.8%** in November. That's well above the [Federal Reserve's](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) 2% target and suggests consumers don't believe inflation is under control. High inflation expectations create their own problems. When people expect prices to keep rising, they demand higher wages to maintain purchasing power. Businesses facing higher labor costs often pass them along through price increases, creating the wage-price spiral that central banks fear. About **50% of consumers expect interest rates to rise**, edging lower from October but still representing half the population bracing for continued monetary tightening. The proportion expecting **lower rates ticked down after rising over recent months**, suggesting declining confidence that the Fed will cut rates meaningfully in the near term. Consumers' **outlook for stock prices twelve months from now remained strongly positive** but was slightly less confident than last month. This matters primarily for wealthier households with significant investment portfolios. For most Americans without substantial stock holdings, rising markets feel disconnected from their daily financial realities. ## The Government Shutdown Hangover Peterson noted that "Consumers' write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by **references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown**." The government shutdown—which recently ended after 43 days—clearly rattled consumer psychology. Federal workers went without paychecks. Economic data releases got delayed, creating information vacuums. Political dysfunction was on full display. Even consumers not directly affected by the shutdown absorbed the message that their government couldn't perform basic functions. While the shutdown has ended, its psychological impacts linger. Consumers saw how quickly political gridlock can disrupt their lives. They watched federal workers struggle to pay bills despite having jobs. The experience reinforced feelings that economic systems are fragile and unreliable. "Even with the federal government functioning again, the outlook is bleak," said Elizabeth Renter, Senior Economist at [NerdWallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/), commenting on the November survey results. "People are concerned about affordability, the labor market and business conditions." ## How This Compares to Other Measures The Conference Board reading aligns with other consumer sentiment measures showing deterioration. The [University of Michigan's](https://www.umich.edu/) sentiment gauge **dropped 4.9% in November** on a monthly basis and was **off 29% from a year ago**. That survey showed **69% of consumers expected unemployment to rise** in the year ahead. Multiple independent measures pointing in the same direction strengthens the signal. When just one survey shows weakness, it might be statistical noise or methodology issues. When multiple surveys using different samples and questions all show declining confidence, it reflects genuine shifts in consumer psychology. The weakening sentiment numbers have caught the Federal Reserve's attention. Several key Fed officials have signaled they believe further interest rate reductions are warranted. Traders are pricing in **high probability that the Fed lowers its benchmark rate by another quarter percentage point in December**. But rate cuts take time to flow through to the real economy. Lower Fed rates don't instantly translate to cheaper mortgages, car loans, or credit card rates. The transmission mechanism works slowly, meaning any Fed action in December won't materially impact holiday spending or first-quarter 2026 economic activity. ## What It Means for the Economy Consumer spending drives roughly **70% of U.S. economic activity**. When consumers feel pessimistic and pull back spending, economic growth slows dramatically. The question is whether November's confidence collapse translates into actual spending reductions or merely reflects anxiety that doesn't change behavior. "As far as we know, this concern hasn't translated into people reining in spending, but in the absence of recent data, we can't be certain," Renter noted. The government shutdown delayed release of key economic statistics, leaving economists somewhat blind about actual consumer behavior in recent weeks. Early Black Friday reports and holiday spending data will provide crucial signals. If consumers shop enthusiastically despite low confidence, the economy may weather the psychological storm. But if pessimism translates into cautious spending, retailers and the broader economy face challenges. As for current business conditions, **only 20.1% of consumers believed they were "good,"** down from 20.7% in October. That's a small decline, but it shows even assessments of the present—not just expectations for the future—are deteriorating. The 88.7 reading represents consumer confidence moving toward lows last seen in 2020 during peak pandemic uncertainty. While we're not there yet, the trend is unmistakable. Consumer psychology is darkening month by month. Unless something changes—improved job numbers, falling inflation, positive political developments—confidence could continue sliding. For businesses, the message is clear: don't expect robust consumer spending to bail out weak performance. Plan conservatively. Manage inventory carefully. Don't assume consumers will show up just because it's the holiday season. For workers, the data validates what many already feel: the job market is getting tougher, raises are uncertain, and financial pressures are mounting. The confidence collapse isn't imaginary—it's showing up consistently across survey data. Whether this pessimism proves justified or becomes self-fulfilling prophecy will shape 2026's economic trajectory. Right now, consumers are voting with their psychology: they don't like what they see ahead. Looking for a new job? 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