---
title: "Insurers Expect Employer Health Plan Claims Costs to Climb…"
canonical: "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/health-plan-claims-costs-10-1-percent-2027"
language: "en"
author: "drashtigarach"
published: "2026-10-29T17:13:43.000Z"
modified: "2026-10-29T17:13:43.000Z"
---

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# Insurers Expect Employer Health Plan Claims Costs to Climb 10.1% in 2027

Insurers project medical trend for employer health plans outside the US at 10.1% in 2027, a seventh straight double-digit year. See what it means for your pay.

[![Drashti Garach](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:40:40/q:72/plain/images/5719d740-e510-42bc-8017-e040d145f35f_1766029465094.png)Drashti Garach @DrashtiGarach](/blog/author/drashtigarach)

[October 29, 2026](/blog/archive/2026/10)13 min read

![Empty hospital MRI room in soft daylight](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:675/q:78/plain/images/health-plan-claims-costs-10-1-percent-2027-hero.jpg)

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Medical trend for employer-provided health plans outside the US [hits 10.1% in 2027, the seventh straight double-digit year](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), in the Health Trends 2027 study from [Marsh](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html). That figure is the expected [annual increase in the cost of medical claims per health plan member](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/), built from [a survey of 306 insurers across 69 markets, excluding the US](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/). For [Metaintro](https://www.metaintro.com) readers, the useful question is what that pressure does to your paycheck, your plan choices at open enrollment and the value of a benefits package when you compare job offers. This guide covers what the insurers found, what drives the rise, how other forecasts compare, and what the new US limits and survey data mean for workers.

## What Did Marsh's New Health Trends Report Find?

The headline is that high costs are settling in. [High healthcare costs are now structural, not temporary](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), in Marsh's summary. Employers should [plan for sustained pressure, not a one-off renewal spike](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), in Marsh's advice.

The spread across countries matters. [Nearly 40% of the markets surveyed expect to post double-digit trend rates in 2027](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/). Looking further out, [almost four in five (78%) insurers expect cost increases to remain at current levels or increase further through 2030](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/).

The findings fall into three trends. Medical trend [remains elevated, with double-digit rates persisting for another year](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), insurers are [increasingly concerned about concentrated, high-impact cost drivers that are difficult to manage with broad strategies](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), and insurers [expect plan sponsors to focus on moderate cost control and value optimization](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html).

## What Does Medical Trend Measure, and Is It the Same as Your Premium?

Medical trend rates [reflect the year-over-year cost increase per person for health benefits claims](https://www.mercer.com/about/newsroom/employers-face-persistent-double-digit-medical-trend-rate-increases-and-insurance-coverage-gaps-in-2026-according-to-mercer-marsh-benefits-health-trends-report/), in the definition used in last year's edition of the same study.

In the US, [among large firms with 200 or more workers, most say that they increased costs for workers to address higher projected health costs, including by increasing the share of premium that workers pay (44%) and by increasing deductibles or other cost-sharing for most services (21%)](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/).

Last year's edition drew on [a survey of 268 insurers across 67 markets, excluding the US](https://www.mercer.com/about/newsroom/employers-face-persistent-double-digit-medical-trend-rate-increases-and-insurance-coverage-gaps-in-2026-according-to-mercer-marsh-benefits-health-trends-report/), released by Mercer Marsh Benefits. That edition projected trend rates would [exceed 10% in most regions for the sixth consecutive year](https://www.mercer.com/about/newsroom/employers-face-persistent-double-digit-medical-trend-rate-increases-and-insurance-coverage-gaps-in-2026-according-to-mercer-marsh-benefits-health-trends-report/).

## What Is Pushing Health Plan Costs Up?

Two forces lead the list. Insurers pointed to [more advanced technology in care delivery (57%) and a higher incidence of health conditions (47%)](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/) as the main reasons costs stay high.

Cancer came out as [the single largest driver of global health claims costs, with 70% of insurers ranking it among the top three causes of claims by dollar amount](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/) among insurers outside the US. Prevention coverage remains limited among insurers, with [49% covering breast cancer screening, and just 30% covering lung cancer screening](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/). Fewer than half of plans [cover key screenings](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), and [preventive care, such as cancer screenings and routine primary care visits, can help catch health issues early](https://www.mercer.com/about/newsroom/employers-face-persistent-double-digit-medical-trend-rate-increases-and-insurance-coverage-gaps-in-2026-according-to-mercer-marsh-benefits-health-trends-report/).

[AI cuts both ways](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), in Marsh's summary of the findings. Insurers lean optimistic, as [more than half of insurers (55%)](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/) believe [AI will reduce employers' medical portfolio costs over the next two to three years](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/), and [a minority believed AI will increase total costs (6%), while nearly a quarter (23%) were unsure](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/). AI [can also raise them via new tech spend and higher utilization](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html).

> Now employers need to think across the full cancer continuum: from prevention and screening through treatment support, return-to-work, and survivorship care, Dr Lorna Friedman, senior partner for health transformation and sustainability at Marsh Health and Benefit, said, according to [the Health & Protection report](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/).

## How Do Other Global Forecasts Compare?

Two other recent global surveys, from [WTW](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey) and [Aon](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/), land on different figures. Each uses its own method, so the figures below sit side by side as separate estimates and are not averaged or mixed.

The [projected global medical trend for 2027 is 10.2%](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey), in early results from [the WTW 2027 Global Medical Trends Survey](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey). WTW's global, Latin America and Europe figures [exclude Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela as outliers due to inflationary pressures](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey). Its base is [393 leading health insurers covering 78 countries](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey), plus [input for 74 countries from WTW brokers](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey), with the survey [in field June through August 2026](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey). [The combined data covers 92 countries](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey). [69% of insurers report growing pressure from clients to reduce healthcare plan rates](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey), in the WTW data.

Aon's figures point down, with the [global average medical trend rate projected to fall to 9.0% in 2027, down from 9.8% in 2026](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/), in Aon's 2027 global medical trend study, as carried by [Risk & Insurance](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/). Even so, that rate is [more than three times the 2.6% global general inflation rate forecast for 2027](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/).

## Where Are Health Plan Costs Rising Fastest?

Asia Pacific tops the WTW table. The projected 2027 trend is [12.6% in Asia Pacific, 11.2% in the Middle East and Africa, 10.5% in North America, 10.3% in Latin America and 8.3% in Europe](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey). [North America, the Middle East and Africa are expected to see accelerating trends through 2027](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey), and Europe [continues to project the lowest regional medical trend](https://www.wtwco.com/en-ie/insights/2026/10/2027-global-medical-trends-survey).

[The moderation is not uniform across markets](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/), Aon found. Asia-Pacific gross trend is projected to [fall to 9.7% in 2027 from 11.3% in 2026](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/), and Europe's is projected to [decline to 7.5% from 8.2%](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/), including [a 2-percentage-point drop in the United Kingdom](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/). North America's gross trend is expected to [edge down to 9.2% from 9.3%](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/).

Some major talent hubs are moving up. [France, Brazil, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Poland](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/) are expected to see medical trend rise compared with 2026 in the Aon data.

Weight-loss drugs add to the pressure. GLP-1 drugs are [now available in nearly 70% of surveyed countries and covered under employer-sponsored plans in half of those markets](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/), and GLP-1s and similar drugs [account for anywhere from 1% to 10% of the medical trend rate across numerous countries, with the average over 3%](https://riskandinsurance.com/global-medical-trend-eases-to-9-0-for-2027-but-cost-pressures-remain-far-above-inflation/).

## What Does This Mean for US Workers at Open Enrollment?

The US has its own number. Total health benefit cost for each US employee is [expected to rise 8.2% on average in 2027, the highest increase since 2003](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), in preliminary results from [the 2026 National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans from Marsh](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), a separate survey of [over 1,800 US employers](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/). That figure [measures both employer and employee premium contributions](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/employer-health-care-costs-increase-2027/), a different base from the Marsh claims trend for markets outside the US, so the two numbers should not be compared directly. Without changes, the cost of employers' current plans [would increase by 11%, on average](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/). The [impact will likely be felt by workers](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), in Marsh's view.

The figure comes [even after accounting for planned cost-reduction measures](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/). [59% of employers plan to make cost-cutting changes to health benefits in 2027](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), including higher deductibles. [About two-thirds of large employers (those with 500 or more employees) expect to increase employees' share of premium costs next year](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), in an earlier Marsh survey from this year. That means many employees will see their paycheck deductions [rise by more than the overall average cost increase](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), in Marsh's projection.

Workers already pay more this year. Employees with family coverage pay [on average $7,471 annually toward the premiums for employer-sponsored family health benefits this year, which is up 9%, or $621, from 2025](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/), in the 2026 survey from [KFF](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/). Total family premiums, including the employer's share, [now average $28,303, up 5% or $1,310 from 2025](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/), while over the same period [wages rose 3.7% and general inflation rose 2.7%, though inflation has been higher in recent months](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/).

Small-firm workers pay more. Covered workers at [small firms with less than 200 workers](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/) contribute [$9,687 annually toward family coverage this year](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/), and they face [much larger average deductibles than workers at larger firms ($2,624 vs. $1,772)](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/). Across all workers with a single-coverage deductible, the [average this year stands at $1,955](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/).

> It is fair to say that most employees will spend more on healthcare next year, with both higher paycheck deductions and higher out-of-pocket costs, Beth Umland, director of employer research for health and benefits at Marsh, said, according to [the CBS News report](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/employer-health-care-costs-increase-2027/).

## How Are Employers Expected to Respond?

Insurers are split on how employers will respond. [Around 38% of insurers expect employers to limit cost growth through moderate plan changes in the coming renewal cycle, and 32% of insurers believe employers will focus on optimising the value of their benefits](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/). Cutting coverage alone [isn't sustainable](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html), in Marsh's view.

When the previous edition came out in [October 2025](https://www.mercer.com/about/newsroom/employers-face-persistent-double-digit-medical-trend-rate-increases-and-insurance-coverage-gaps-in-2026-according-to-mercer-marsh-benefits-health-trends-report/), Hervé Balzano, then Mercer Marsh Benefits' Global Leader, observed that [for the first time in four years, insurers are anticipating a shift towards employers reducing coverage to manage costs](https://www.mercer.com/about/newsroom/employers-face-persistent-double-digit-medical-trend-rate-increases-and-insurance-coverage-gaps-in-2026-according-to-mercer-marsh-benefits-health-trends-report/). This year, as president of Marsh Health and Benefits, he pointed to [aligning benefits design to organisational objectives, optimising financing and operations, and investing in prevention and early intervention](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/).

In the US, many employers are looking at [lower-cost, quality-focused plan options](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), in that same earlier survey. [Variable copay plans, which 12% of large employers plan to offer in 2027 (18% of employers with 20,000 or more employees)](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), [generally have no or a low deductible and charge members less when they select top-performing providers for specific health services](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/). [Over a third of large employers plan to offer some type of non-traditional medical plan in 2027](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), such as a variable copay or high-performance network plan.

[Rising GLP-1 utilization accounts for a full percentage point of the overall cost growth for 2027](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), Marsh's US chief actuary estimates, and in his words [some employers needing immediate cost relief chose to drop this coverage for next year](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/). [About one in five (18%) large firms cover GLP-1 drugs specifically for weight loss](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/) in the US, in the KFF survey.

## What Are the 2027 Limits for HSAs and High-Deductible Plans?

If your employer moves you toward a high-deductible plan, the 2027 health savings account limits are already set. For calendar year 2027, the health savings account limit is [$4,500 for an individual with self-only coverage and $9,000 for family coverage](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-24.pdf), set in [Revenue Procedure 2026-24 from the IRS](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-24.pdf).

To qualify as a high-deductible plan in 2027, a plan needs a deductible [not less than $1,750 for self-only coverage or $3,500 for family coverage](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-24.pdf). Its annual out-of-pocket costs (deductibles, co-payments and other amounts, but not premiums) must [not exceed $8,700 for self-only coverage or $17,400 for family coverage](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-24.pdf).

Some employers fund a separate account as well. For plan years beginning in 2027, the most an employer can newly make available in an excepted benefit health reimbursement arrangement is [$2,250](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-24.pdf).

## What This Means for Workers, and What Should You Do Next?

The two Marsh surveys tell the same story from two angles, each on its own base. In the markets Marsh surveyed outside the US, [employer-provided health plans face intense pressure](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html). In the US, a majority of employers in the Marsh survey plan [cost-cutting changes to health benefits](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/), while many are looking at [lower-cost, quality-focused plan options](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/). Health costs grew faster than pay this year in the [KFF survey](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/), so a raise that looks fair on paper can shrink once the new deductions start. Reading the plan documents this fall helps protect next year's raise.

- **Compare plans at open enrollment, do not roll over.** Marsh advises employees to [explore other available medical plan options to see if a change makes sense](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/) during open enrollment. Add up premium plus deductible for each plan, not just the paycheck deduction.
- **Fund a health savings account if you take a high-deductible plan.** The 2027 caps in [the IRS revenue procedure](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-24.pdf) set how much you can put into the account for the year.
- **Use the screenings your plan covers.** Check which cancer screenings yours pays for before you need them.
- **Price the health plan into every job offer.** Covered workers at small firms pay [$2,847 more than workers in large firms with at least 200 workers](https://www.kff.org/other-health/workers-now-pay-7471-on-average-annually-for-family-health-coverage-up-9-or-621-from-2025-benchmark-employer-health-benefits-survey-finds/) toward family coverage, so a higher salary at a small firm can be worth less than it looks.

If you are deciding between offers, [government jobs and why the benefits beat the private sector](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/government-jobs-pay-and-benefits) compares sector benefits, and [rising health insurance premiums for workers](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/aca-health-premiums-14-percent-2027-workers) covers coverage bought on your own.

Lacey Kaelani, [Metaintro](https://www.metaintro.com)'s CEO, puts it this way: Your salary is only half the offer. Ask what the health plan costs you before you say yes, because that number grows every year.

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## People Also Asked

### Q: How much will employer health plan costs rise next year?

A: Insurers surveyed for Marsh project medical trend of [10.1% in 2027](https://www.marsh.com/en/services/employee-health-benefits/insights/health-trends-report.html) for employer-provided plans in markets outside the US, while US employers expect total health benefit cost per employee to [rise 8.2% on average in 2027](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/).

### Q: Why are health benefit costs rising so fast?

A: Insurers cite [more advanced technology in care delivery (57%) and a higher incidence of health conditions (47%)](https://healthcareandprotection.com/global-health-benefit-costs-set-to-rise-10-marsh/), and cancer is the largest single driver of claims costs.

### Q: Will workers pay more for health insurance next year?

A: Many US workers will. [59% of employers plan to make cost-cutting changes to health benefits in 2027](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/employers-expect-health-benefit-costs-to-jump-in-2027/) in a Marsh survey of US employers, including higher deductibles that can raise out-of-pocket costs.

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