---
title: "State of the Workforce September 2026 | Metaintro"
canonical: "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/state-of-the-workforce-september-2026"
language: "en"
author: "drashtigarach"
published: "2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z"
modified: "2026-10-06T10:37:49.761Z"
---

[Back to Blog](/blog)
[News](/blog/tag/news)[Labor Market](/blog/tag/labor-market)[Layoffs](/blog/tag/layoffs)[Jobs](/blog/tag/jobs)[Economy](/blog/tag/economy)[Hiring](/blog/tag/hiring)
# State of the Workforce September 2026 - The Raise That Lost to Prices

US payrolls rose just 29,000 in September 2026, July turned negative, and hourly pay grew 3.0% while prices rose 3.4%. What it means for your next raise.

[![Drashti Garach](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:40:40/q:72/plain/images/5719d740-e510-42bc-8017-e040d145f35f_1766029465094.png)Drashti Garach @DrashtiGarach](/blog/author/drashtigarach)

[October 6, 2026](/blog/archive/2026/10)33 min read

![Commercial building under construction with a steel frame, a yellow scissor lift and stacks of copper pipe under a clear blue sky.](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:675/q:78/plain/images/sotw-september-2026-hero.png)

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Reading time: about 20 minutes. Jump to What Should You Do With a Month Like This for what the data means for your next move.

![The Month in 5 Numbers, September 2026. Payrolls +29K, unemployment 4.2%, July and August revised down 60K, hourly pay up 3.0% against prices up 3.4%, and 90,787 announced hiring plans, the lowest September since 2011.](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:518/q:85/plain/images/sotw-september-2026-month-in-5-numbers.png)
September is the month the paycheck story overtook the jobs story. The headline number was small, and the revisions took a further 60,000 jobs off July and August combined. That alone would make this a soft report. But the more important line sits a few paragraphs further down the release, where average hourly earnings for private workers rose 3.0% over the year. The last consumer price reading showed prices up 3.4% over the same kind of window. For most people with a job, that gap matters more than whether payrolls printed 29,000 or three times that, because it decides whether this year's raise actually bought anything.

This is the September edition of Metaintro's monthly [State of the Workforce](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/state-of-the-workforce-august-2026) report. Last month we called it [the rebound you could not apply to](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/state-of-the-workforce-august-2026), a gain concentrated in restaurants and school staff. This month the rebound was revised smaller, and the question changed from where the jobs are to what the jobs pay. As we do every month, we pair the official data with the employers and filings behind it, so you can see where each number comes from and what it means for your next move.

## September at a Glance

- **29,000** jobs added in September, with July now revised to a loss of 10,000 and the three-month average at 51,000.
- **4.2%** [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), inside the 4.1% to 4.3% range it has held since March.
- **3.0% vs 3.4%**, the yearly rise in average hourly pay against the latest yearly rise in consumer prices.
- **43,281** announced job cuts in September, the lowest September total since 2022.
- **90,787** announced hiring plans in September, the lowest September total since 2011.

## A Raise Is Only a Raise If It Beats the Receipt

*By Lacey Kaelani, CEO of*[Metaintro](https://www.metaintro.com)*.*

Most of the people I talk to did get a raise this year. That is worth saying first, because the headlines about a stalled job market can make it sound as if nobody is being paid more. They are. Average hourly pay is up about three percent on the year. The problem is that prices overall went up faster, led by the gas tank, and a raise that loses to prices is not a raise. It is a slower pay cut.

I think this is the part of the labor market that gets the least attention and does the most damage. A layoff is visible. It has a date and a number and sometimes a press release. Falling real pay has none of that. It shows up as a vague sense that you are working the same hours, earning a bigger number, and somehow ending each month with less room than last year. People blame their budgeting. They should be looking at the gap between their pay and the price level, because that gap is real and it is measurable.

> When a raise loses to prices, it is not a raise. It is a slower pay cut that nobody has to announce.

The usual answer to slow pay growth is to change jobs, and the switching premium still exists. People who changed jobs this year saw bigger increases than people who stayed. But that answer only works if employers are hiring, and right now they are hiring cautiously. Openings have slipped, hiring plans for the season are the thinnest in years, and a rate increase from the Fed makes every new hire a little more expensive for the business making it. That combination does not shut the door, but it does narrow it.

So my advice this month is narrower than telling everyone to go get a new job. Know your number. Find out what your role pays in your market, compare it with what you earned a year ago, and take that comparison into your next review as a fact rather than a feeling. If the gap is large, then yes, start looking, and look first at the parts of the economy that are still adding people. If the gap is small, negotiate on the gap itself. In a month like this, the most useful thing you can bring to a pay conversation is arithmetic.

## What Did September's Jobs Report Actually Show?

The [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) reported on Friday, October 2, that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The agency described both numbers as having "changed little," and noted that employment in all major industries changed little over the month. September's gain came after an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months, so the month was weak even against a year that was already slow.

The bigger news was in the revisions. July was revised down by 31,000, from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August was revised down by 29,000, from 162,000 to 133,000. Combined, July and August are 60,000 lower than previously reported. That turns July into a month in which the economy lost jobs, and it means last month's headline, the strongest-looking print of the summer, was overstated by close to a fifth. The three-month average for total nonfarm [payrolls](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm) now sits at 51,000.

The household survey told a similar story of standstill rather than collapse. The number of unemployed people was 7.1 million, the labor force participation rate was 61.8% and the [employment](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)-population ratio was 59.2%, all changed little. The unemployment rate has stayed in a narrow range of 4.1% to 4.3% since March. The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, was 1.9 million, or 27.1% of all unemployed people. Those figures describe a market that is not shedding workers fast, but is not pulling the unemployed back in quickly either.

Two smaller signals in the release point the same way. The [number of people working part time for economic reasons](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), meaning they wanted full-time work but could not find it or had their hours cut, was 4.5 million. And the diffusion index for 250 private industries fell to 49.0 in September from 57.6 in August, which means slightly more industries cut jobs than added them. One month of a sub-50 reading is not a trend. It does confirm that August's breadth did not carry over.

[Indeed Hiring Lab](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/10/02/september-2026-jobs-report-steadiness-without-a-spark/) summed up the month as "Steadiness without a spark," and pointed out that the report "falls especially flat when read through the lens of stubborn inflation". That framing is the right one for this report. A 4.2% [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) is not alarming on its own. Paired with pay that trails prices, it describes a market in which most workers keep their jobs but quietly lose ground. It also matches what Indeed's own September snapshot found in job postings, which we come back to below.

![Line chart of US monthly payroll change from January to September 2026 after revisions, showing July at -10K, August at +133K and September at +29K, with private payrolls at +46K.](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:912/q:85/plain/images/sotw-september-2026-jobs-trend.png)
### What Do the Revisions Do to Last Month's Story?

Every month we re-check last month's comparisons against the new release, because revisions silently change them. This month they changed a lot. [Last month](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/state-of-the-workforce-august-2026) we reported that August printed 162,000 and that June and July had been revised up. August is now 133,000 and July is now negative. On the series we track, August still clears the 122,000 mark that [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) treats as the threshold for a statistically significant monthly change, and 2026 now has four months with gains above it, January at 160,000, March at 214,000, April at 148,000 and August at 133,000.

[Last month](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/state-of-the-workforce-august-2026) we also wrote that ADP and the government disagreed by 89,000 on August private hiring, when ADP counted 38,000 against the government's 127,000. With BLS private [payrolls](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm) for August revised down from 127,000 to 89,000, and ADP's own August figure revised from 38,000 to 36,000, that gap is now 53,000. The revision moved the official number toward the private one. Both surveys revise their estimates, as August showed, so it is worth treating any single first print as provisional until it has been revised at least once.

## Is Your Raise Keeping Up With Prices?

On average, no. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm [payrolls](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) rose 5 cents in September to $37.81, and are up 3.0% over the past 12 months. The most recent Consumer Price Index, covering August, showed prices up 3.4% over the year, with the energy index up 16.3% and gasoline accounting for over one third of August's monthly increase. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 2.4%. Pay is beating core inflation. It is losing to the prices people actually pay at the pump.

The government's own inflation-adjusted measure confirms it. The BLS [Real Earnings](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm) release for August found that real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.3% from August 2025 to August 2026. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.3% over the same period, because the average workweek grew 0.6%. Put simply, people kept up only by working more hours. For production and nonsupervisory employees, [real hourly earnings](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm) fell 0.1% over the year. For workers whose hours are fixed, the hourly figure is the one that matters.

**Metaintro data point of the month.** Our analysis of BLS [pay](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000003) and [price](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0) series shows that the yearly rise in average hourly pay has trailed the yearly rise in consumer prices in every month from April through August 2026. In April pay was up 3.6% against prices up 3.8%, in May 3.3% against 4.2%, in June 3.4% against 3.5%, in July 3.2% against 3.4%, and in August 3.1% against 3.4%. A year earlier the picture was the reverse. In August 2025, [pay was up](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000003) 4.0% while prices were up 2.9%. That is a swing of more than a full percentage point in the wrong direction for workers in twelve months.

> Average hourly pay has grown more slowly than consumer prices in every month from April through August 2026, according to Metaintro's analysis of BLS [pay](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000003) and [price](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0) data.

Job postings tell the same story from the employer side. [Indeed's September labor market snapshot](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/09/24/us-labor-market-snapshot-september-2026/) reported that posted wages rose 2.5% over the year ending August 2026. That is below both August's [actual pay growth](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000003) of 3.1% and inflation of 3.4%. Posted pay at 2.5% trails prices, even though the actual raises people get when they change jobs still beat inflation, as the ADP figures below show. If you are comparing offers, check the posted range against what you earn today before you assume a move will pay more. We explain how we track posted pay in our [posted pay methodology](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/posted-pay-methodology).

[ADP's](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September) Pay Insights, which follows the same individual workers over 12 months, shows the switching premium has not disappeared. [Base pay](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September) for job-stayers rose 3.0% year over year in September, while base pay for job-changers rose 4.8%. Gross pay rose 4.4% for stayers and 7.3% for changers. So a job change still beats inflation for the typical person who makes one. The catch is the number of people able to make one, which we turn to below. For most readers, the practical question is not whether switching pays, but whether a switch is available.

## Where Did the Jobs Actually Go?

One sector did most of the work, again. [Health care](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) added 17,000 jobs in September, with ambulatory health care services up 13,000 and hospitals up 12,000, while nursing and residential care facilities lost 9,000. That was slower than health care's average monthly gain of 33,000 over the prior 12 months. Construction added 11,000, including 12,000 in nonresidential specialty trade contractors. Manufacturing added 9,000 and is up 72,000 since a recent low in December 2025, with gains in plastics and rubber products and in machinery, each up 5,000.

The losses were concentrated in white-collar industries and government. [Information](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm) lost 10,000 jobs in September after losing 18,000 in August. Professional and business services lost 9,000, and temporary help services lost 10,900. Financial activities lost 7,000 and is down 129,000 since a recent peak in May 2025, with most of that loss in insurance carriers and related activities, down 90,000. Government shed 17,000 jobs in September, including 13,000 in local government. Elsewhere, [leisure and hospitality](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm) added 10,000 jobs in September after gaining 37,000 in August, and retail trade added 5,800 after losing 5,100. Transportation and warehousing added 7,600. None of those moves is large enough to change the shape of the year. The shape of the year is health care growing, government and information shrinking, and most other industries roughly flat.

The 12-month view is more striking than any single month. Using the BLS industry table, total nonfarm [employment](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm) rose from 158,548,000 in September 2025 to 159,044,000 in September 2026, a gain of about 496,000. Over the same period health care and social assistance rose from 23,438,200 to 23,958,600, a gain of about 520,000. In other words, one sector added more jobs than the entire economy did on net. All other industries together netted out to a small loss, led by federal [employment](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm), which fell from 2,914,000 to 2,682,000, a drop of about 232,000.

It also fits the [information sector's](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm) long decline, which stood at about 120,000 fewer jobs than a year earlier, falling from 2,859,000 to 2,739,000. That matches one of the standing observations in Metaintro's Data Toolkit, the reference set of labor market patterns we maintain for this report, that the information sector is smaller than a year ago and the tech contraction has not reversed. If you work in or near tech, media or publishing, the industry-level data is not describing a pause. It is describing an industry with about 120,000 fewer jobs than a year ago. We have covered what that looks like company by company, including [Disney's third layoff round of 2026](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/disney-third-layoff-round-2026-300-hr-technology-jobs) and [Xbox's 268 job cuts](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/xbox-268-job-cuts-halo-activision).

## Why Do the Other Surveys Disagree?

[ADP](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September)'s National Employment Report counted 90,000 private jobs in September, almost double the 46,000 private jobs in the government's count. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson called it "a strong report," adding that "After a three-month slowdown, job creation rebounded and pay growth remained solid." Last month's gap between the two narrowed once [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm) revised August. Neither number is the final word, because both organisations revise their estimates, and the September figures will be revised too. For now, the two surveys give a range rather than a single answer.

The more useful comparison is where they agree. Both surveys show financial activities and professional and business services losing jobs in September, with [ADP](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September) putting the losses at 16,000 and 11,000, and BLS at 7,000 and 9,000. Both show manufacturing and construction adding jobs. Both put education and health at the top of the gains, though [ADP](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September)'s figure of 55,000 is far above the government's 20,000 for private education and health services. When two independent measures agree on direction, the direction is probably right even when the size is not.

The [Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm) for August, released September 29, showed a market that is still frozen in place. [Job openings](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm) were little changed at 7.1 million, a rate of 4.3%. Hires were 5.2 million, a rate of 3.3%, and the agency said hires "changed little over the month and year." Quits held at 3.1 million, a rate of 1.9%, and layoffs and discharges were 1.6 million, a rate of 1.0%. Set against the 7.0 million unemployed people counted in August, that is roughly one opening for each person looking.

[Indeed Hiring Lab's note](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/09/29/august-2026-jolts-report/) on the release said job openings "edged down to 7.1 million in August, from a revised 7.3 million in July," and that the quits rate "remained unchanged at 1.9% in August." A 1.9% quits rate matters for the pay story above. Leaving for a new employer is how workers collect the switching premium, and a quits rate this low suggests relatively few are doing it. The premium exists on paper. The door to it is narrow.

Weekly jobless claims, from the [Department of Labor](https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2026/100126.pdf), remain the strongest evidence that employers are not laying people off at scale. In the week ending September 26, seasonally adjusted [initial claims](https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2026/100126.pdf) were 197,000, down 1,000 from the prior week, and the four-week moving average was 200,000. A year earlier, seasonally adjusted initial claims for the comparable week were 225,000. Insured unemployment was 1,701,000 for the week ending September 19, an insured unemployment rate of 1.1%. Low layoffs and low hiring together are the defining feature of this market, and claims confirm that the low-layoff half still holds. We looked at that pattern in detail in [jobless claims and the low-hire, low-fire market](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/jobless-claims-196000-low-hire-low-fire).

## Who Cut Jobs in September, and Why?

[Challenger, Gray and Christmas](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf), released October 1, counted 43,281 announced job cuts in September, down 18% from 52,881 in August and down 20% from 54,064 in September 2025. It was the lowest September total since 2022. Through September, employers have announced 573,195 cuts, down 39% from 946,426 in the first nine months of 2025. Third-quarter layoff plans totaled 129,591, down 43% from the second quarter. The total fell, but the mix of industries and reasons changed, which we look at below.

Technology led the month with 10,799 cuts, up 77% from August, and has [announced](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf) 165,925 cuts this year, up 54% on the same period of 2025 and 29% of all cuts announced in 2026. Food producers announced 7,326 cuts, and Washington orchards and agricultural employers accounted for 5,396 of them, which Challenger says were all filed through WARN notices citing a downturn in demand. Non-profit organizations announced 4,742 cuts, the sector's highest monthly total of 2026. Transportation announced 2,151 cuts in September and is up 190% year to date at 44,430.

The companies' own filings add detail the headline totals cannot. [Uber's](https://www.uber.com/us/en/newsroom/simplerfasteruber/) chief executive told staff on September 2 that the company would be "reducing the size of our team by about 10%," by "removing layers, simplifying team structures, refining our global location strategy". [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/02/uber-is-laying-off-10-of-staff-or-3300-people/) put that at about 3,300 people. Uber's [Washington WARN notice](https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/file/WARN/Public/DownloadFile.aspx?file=1877ae68-2d96-4399-b3a5-a71dbbc4a481.pdf&download=1) covers 93 employees with an end date of November 2, 2026, and says they "will continue to receive their full pay and benefits during the notice period." [Microsoft](https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/file/WARN/Public/DownloadFile.aspx?file=88eaed30-e284-4dbf-9b9e-13600c6919ea.pdf&download=1) filed a Washington WARN notice on September 22 to "reorganize and restructure operations," eliminating 252 positions in Redmond and 25 remote positions, all 277 effective November 21.

On September 22, [Xbox](https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/09/22/continuing-our-reset/) said it was "eliminating 268 roles across Halo Studios, other first-party studios, and the XGS management and central functions layer." [Oracle's Washington notice](https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/file/WARN/Public/DownloadFile.aspx?file=d1804142-9ad0-4903-9024-53e2bb62ab34.pdf&download=1), covering its Seattle sites and remote workers in the state, with 359 workers on the [state WARN list](https://esd.wa.gov/employer-requirements/layoffs-and-employee-notifications/worker-adjustment-and-retraining-notification-warn-layoff-and-closure-database), and its [California WARN notices](https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Layoff_Services_WARN) for further cuts in Redwood City, Santa Clara and Pleasanton all take effect November 13. For anyone affected, the WARN notice is the document to read first, because it states the expected separation date, and some, like Uber's, say whether pay continues through the notice period.

Two of the month's biggest numbers look different once you open the filings. The [Washington Employment Security Department](https://esd.wa.gov/employer-requirements/layoffs-and-employee-notifications/worker-adjustment-and-retraining-notification-warn-layoff-and-closure-database) WARN list shows orchard and farm employers accounted for most of the workers on the state's September notices, led by Gebbers Farms in Brewster at 3,445 workers, and several of the orchard notices are marked temporary. Challenger's report describes the Washington orchard cuts as citing a downturn in demand. But the orchard letters we could read describe a harvest calendar. [FirstFruits](https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/file/WARN/Public/DownloadFile.aspx?file=67e8893d-53a9-493e-9fce-0dee38c16262.pdf&download=1) told its pickers the notice was for "the annual end of apple harvest seasonal layoff," and that "The only change in this process from previous seasons is a new requirement from the State of Washington that employers provide written notice in advance of an anticipated layoff." Gilbert Orchards cited "the seasonal nature of our operations".

In California, a [state WARN notice](https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Layoff_Services_WARN) for 1,279 airport screeners at San Francisco International comes from a change of security contractor, and [KRON4](https://www.kron4.com/news/company-that-provides-security-screening-at-sfo-laying-off-nearly-1300-workers/) reports, citing SFO spokesperson Doug Yakel, that affected employees will transition to the new security screening vendor under the airport's worker retention policy. The largest orchard notice, Gebbers Farms, is marked permanent, but FirstFruits, Gilbert and three other farm employers filed notices marked temporary, and the airport screeners are expected to move to the new vendor. Those are real notices that do not all mean permanent job loss.

![Bar chart of September 2026 announced job cuts by stated reason. Market and economic conditions 8,789, closings 7,719, demand downturn 6,515, restructuring 6,243, artificial intelligence 3,961. Total 43,281.](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:840/q:85/plain/images/sotw-september-2026-job-cuts-by-reason.png)
### The Reason Column Shifted Toward the Economy

Challenger's reason column is the most telling part of this month's report. Market and economic conditions led all reasons in September with 8,789 [cuts](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf), 20% of the total. Closings followed with 7,719. [Demand downturn](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf) accounted for 6,515 cuts, the highest monthly total for that reason since February 2023. Restructuring was cited for 6,243. Artificial intelligence was the fifth-most cited reason, with 3,961 cuts or about 9% of the month's total. The top five reasons together account for 33,227 of the month's 43,281 [announced cuts](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf).

That is a shift in what employers say out loud. AI is still the leading reason year to date, at 120,136 cuts or about 21% of all [announced](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf) cuts, so it would be wrong to say AI has stopped mattering. But in September, the list was led by market and economic conditions, then closings, with demand downturn third at its highest monthly total since February 2023. Some of that demand total needs care, because Challenger tied 5,396 Washington orchard cuts to WARN notices citing a downturn in demand, while the orchard letters we read describe seasonal harvest layoffs.

Andy Challenger, the firm's chief revenue officer, described the mood directly. "Companies are in a wait-and-see period right now," he said, citing high energy costs, the war in Iran, "a rate hike that could make hiring more expensive," and the likelihood of surging healthcare costs. That list matches what the payroll and pay data show. Employers are not panicking. They are holding. That reading is consistent with the low weekly claims and the fall in announced hiring plans covered elsewhere in this report.

## What Is Actually Hiring?

Announced hiring plans are where September looked weakest. Employers announced plans to hire 90,787 workers, up from 12,325 in August as seasonal announcements began, but down 23% from 117,313 in September 2025. That is the lowest September total since 2011. [Challenger](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf) noted that Spirit Halloween and Michaels, the only retailers with announced seasonal hiring numbers in Challenger's count, account for a combined 62,000 seasonal hires, against 100,800 announced by [seasonal employers last September](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-september-hiring-plans-up-3-over-2025-on-weak-early-seasonal-hiring/). Retail led September with 65,150 announced hires, followed by aerospace and defense with 5,300 and utilities with 4,200.

The seasonal roles are real, and the employers' own announcements spell out how to get them. [Spirit Halloween](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/spirit-summons-52-000-seasonal-associates-for-a-scary-big-hiring-season-302797620.html) said in June it was hiring more than 52,000 seasonal associates for more than 1,500 retail locations across the US and Canada, for roles from seasonal sales associates to store managers, with applications through Work4Spirit.com or by texting "Reaper" to 85000. [Michaels](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/michaels-prepares-for-the-holiday-season-with-more-than-10-000-seasonal-job-opportunities-302875690.html) said on September 10 that it was hiring more than 10,000 seasonal team members, and that nearly 50% of seasonal in-store positions converted to regular roles last year. [Macy's](https://www.macysinc.com/newsroom/news/news-details/2026/Macys-Inc--Hiring-Nationwide-to-Create-a-Season-of-Celebration-2026-vI9aD1t--y/default.aspx) announced store and supply chain seasonal hiring on September 24, with hiring events on October 22 and November 19 and pay ranges included in all job postings.

Health care is where the steady, year-round demand is, and real postings show what it pays. [Advocate Health](https://aah.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/External/job/Advocate-Illinois-Masonic-Medical-Center---836-W-Wellington-Ave/Registered-Nurse--RN----Operating-Room_R277742) posted a Registered Nurse role in the operating room at Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center in Chicago on October 5 with a pay range of $38.20 to $57.30 an hour. The same employer posted a [Licensed Practical Nurse role](https://aah.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/External/job/Winston-Salem-NC---1200-N-Martin-Luther-King-Jr-Dr/Licensed-Practical-Nurse--LPN----Ambulatory---Family-Medicine_R273406) in ambulatory family medicine in Winston Salem, North Carolina, at $24.10 to $36.15 an hour. [OhioHealth](https://careers.ohiohealth.com/) is holding a Nursing and Clinical Career Expo on October 8 in Columbus, Ohio, covering nursing, respiratory therapy, imaging, lab, medical assistant and surgical technologist roles, with on-the-spot interviews for select positions. For more on what nurses earn by specialty, see our guides to [ICU nurse salary](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/icu-nurse-salary) and [nurse annual salary](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/nurse-annual-salary).

Commercial construction trades are the second clear opening. [Rosendin](https://rosendin.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/Careers/job/Field-CA-Sacramento/Journeyman-Electrician_JR106813) posted a Journeyman Electrician role in Sacramento, California, on September 28 at $53.70 an hour and up, working on commercial and industrial electrical systems. [H. B. McClure](https://hbglobal.wd108.myworkdayjobs.com/HBM/job/Harrisburg-PA/Sheet-Metal-Mechanic_JR100748) posted a Sheet Metal Mechanic role in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on September 29 with hourly rates starting at $25 depending on experience. [Comfort Systems USA](https://comfortsystemsusa.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/Corpcareers/job/Huntsville-AL-CSUSA-Mid-South/Plumbing-Apprentice-Helper_JR108415-1) posted an entry-level Plumbing Apprentice Helper role in Huntsville, Alabama, on September 30, described as an entry-level position in commercial construction. These line up with the government's data showing nonresidential specialty trade contractors adding 12,000 jobs in September.

Manufacturing is the third. [Caterpillar](https://cat.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/CaterpillarCareers/job/Waco-Texas/Product-Assembler-I---Waco--TX_R0000393101) posted a Product Assembler I role in Waco, Texas, on October 5 with a pay range of $18.90 to $24.60 an hour and a starting rate of $19.59, and an [Assembler I role in Dyer, Indiana](https://cat.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/CaterpillarCareers/job/USA--IN--Dyer/Assembler-I-First-Shift_R0000387915-1), at $18.80 to $24.40. [AriensCo](https://arienscompany.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/External/job/WI---Brillion/Assembler---1st-Shift_R-04190) posted an Assembler role in Brillion, Wisconsin, starting at $20 an hour plus a $4,000 sign-on bonus, on a four-day, ten-hour schedule. [Plastipak](https://plastipak.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/Plastipak/job/Plastipak---Champaign-IL/Machine-Operator---Night-Shift_REQ24605) posted a night-shift Machine Operator role in Champaign, Illinois, with the posting listing pay as "Earn $19.50 per hour", "$18.50 per hour" and "Plus $1.00 more for night shift differential". Those are the industries the BLS release singled out for September gains, machinery and plastics and rubber products.

A note of caution on all of these. A single posting is an example of an open role, not a measure of how much an employer is hiring overall, and postings close without notice. Check the employer's own careers page before you apply, and treat the pay ranges above as a guide to the market rather than a promise for any individual offer. We also covered [Caterpillar's $1 billion Sanford plant, tied to keeping 1,950 jobs](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/caterpillar-sanford-1-billion-plant-1950-jobs) and the [up to 157,000-worker shortfall US chip plants could face by 2030](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/us-chip-plants-157000-worker-shortfall).

## What Should You Do With a Month Like This?

**Calculate your real raise.** Take your pay today and your pay a year ago, work out the percentage change, and subtract 3.4%, the latest yearly rise in [consumer prices](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm). If the answer is negative, your purchasing power fell. That number is the most useful single fact you can bring into a review, because it reframes the conversation from asking for more to asking to stay level. Employers who accept that wages trail prices across the market will find it harder to argue with a specific gap.

**Use the switching premium carefully.** Job-changers still saw base pay rise 4.8% against 3.0% for stayers, according to [ADP](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September). But openings slipped to 7.1 million, quits are at 1.9% and hiring plans are the weakest for a September since 2011. A move is still the fastest way to a larger raise, but with quits at 1.9% it is slower to arrange than the raise figures suggest. Start a search while employed, and do not resign before you have an offer in writing.

**Point your search at the growing sectors.** Health care, commercial construction trades and parts of manufacturing are adding jobs, and most of the postings above list pay openly. If you are coming from information or finance, where the government's data shows contraction, or from professional and business services, which has lost jobs for three straight months, much of it in temporary help, look for adjacent roles inside the growing sectors, such as operations, IT, billing, scheduling or procurement in a hospital system or a manufacturer.

**Take seasonal work seriously if you need income now.** Michaels said nearly half of its seasonal in-store roles converted to regular positions last year. A seasonal job with a known conversion path is a better bet than waiting for a full-time role in a market where hiring plans are thin. Apply early, because announced seasonal hiring is lower than last year. Check whether the role lists a conversion path or a hiring event, as Michaels and Macy's do, before you apply.

**Watch your hours as closely as your rate.** Real weekly earnings only kept pace this year because the average workweek grew. If your hours are cut, your real income falls twice, once from prices and once from time. If your employer offers extra shifts or overtime, that is currently the most reliable way to keep pace, though it is a short-term fix rather than a raise. Keep a record of your weekly hours alongside your hourly rate, so you can see the full change in your take-home pay over the year.

## The Bigger Picture, and What This Means for You

![Sector forecast card for September 2026. Health care +17K, construction +11K, manufacturing +9K, leisure and hospitality +10K, government -17K, professional and business services -9K, financial activities -7K, information -10K.](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:887/q:85/plain/images/sotw-september-2026-workforce-forecast.png)
**The jobs market is flat, the pay market is falling.** [Payrolls](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm) grew by an average of 51,000 a month over the past three months, slow but positive, and unemployment has held between 4.1% and 4.3% since March. By the standard measures, nothing broke in September. But [real hourly pay](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm) fell 0.3% over the year, and pay has trailed prices in every month since April on our analysis. For a large share of workers, the labor market's most important number this year is not the unemployment rate. It is the gap between the raise and the receipt.

**One sector is carrying the whole economy.** [Health care](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm) and social assistance added about 520,000 jobs over the past year, more than the economy's net gain of about 496,000. Federal employment fell by about 232,000 and information by about 120,000 over the same period. That kind of concentration makes the aggregate fragile. If [health care hiring](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) slows from its 12-month average of 33,000 a month, as it did in September at 17,000, there is no second engine waiting. Health care's lead is also one of the most consistent patterns in Metaintro's Data Toolkit. By our count of the BLS supersector series, [private education and health services](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES6500000001) posted the largest monthly job gain of any industry group in 19 of the last 24 months, and [health care](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES6562000101) added jobs in 22 of them.

**Policy has moved against hiring.** The [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm) raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, saying that "Inflation remains elevated" and that "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce". Indeed Hiring Lab noted it was the first rate hike in more than three years, and that 16 out of 18 FOMC members projected at least one additional hike this year. Higher borrowing costs make new hires more expensive, and Challenger's own September commentary named the rate hike as a reason employers are waiting.

### Three Things We Expect Next Quarter

- **Pay stays behind**[prices](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)**until energy cools.** Energy prices were up 16.3% over the year in August while core prices rose 2.4%. Average hourly pay is growing at 3.0%, so the gap closes when headline inflation falls toward core or pay growth speeds up. The September CPI on October 14 is the first test.
- **Seasonal hiring comes in below last year.** Announced September hiring plans were down 23% on September 2025, and the 62,000 seasonal hires announced so far by Spirit Halloween and Michaels compare with 100,800 announced by [seasonal employers last September](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-september-hiring-plans-up-3-over-2025-on-weak-early-seasonal-hiring/). Our outlook is fewer holiday roles than last year.
- **Economic reasons stay near the top of the layoff count.** Market and economic conditions led September's reasons and demand downturn reached its highest monthly level since February 2023. If economic reasons lead again in October, the layoff story will have moved further from technology toward the business cycle.

## What to Watch Next

- **Wednesday October 14, September CPI and Real Earnings.** The first read on whether pay is catching up with prices, and the update to the 0.3% real hourly decline.
- **Tuesday October 20, state employment and unemployment for September.** Shows which states gained or lost jobs in September and where unemployment is rising.
- **Wednesday October 21, Usual Weekly Earnings for the third quarter.** A broader read on weekly pay for full-time workers.
- **Tuesday and Wednesday October 27 and 28, the next FOMC meeting.** Whether the Fed follows September's hike with another, after most members projected at least one more this year.
- **Friday October 30, the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter.** The most complete measure of wages and benefits, and a check on the hourly earnings figure.
- **Tuesday November 3, JOLTS for September.** The [BLS November schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm) lists it at 10:00 AM. Watch the quits rate, stuck at 1.9%, and whether openings fall further from 7.1 million.
- **Wednesday November 4, the**[ADP National Employment Report](https://adpemploymentreport.com/)**for October.** Whether September's 90,000 private gain holds up or narrows toward the government's figure.
- **Thursday November 5, the**[Challenger report](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/2026-challenger-job-cut-report-release-calendar/)**for October.** Whether demand downturn stays near the top of the reason column.
- **Friday November 6, the October jobs report.** Whether August's 133,000 and September's 29,000 hold up after revision, and whether health care resumes its pace.

## Methodology

This report draws on federal labor data, specifically the [Employment Situation for September 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) (USDL-26-1549) released October 2, the [Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm) released September 29, the [Consumer Price Index for August 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) and the [Real Earnings release for August 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm), both released September 11, and [Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims](https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2026/100126.pdf) released October 1. Monthly payroll, pay and price series were retrieved from the BLS public data API on October 6.

Private-sector employment and pay comparisons use the [ADP National Employment Report](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September) released September 30. Announced job cuts and hiring plans come from the [Challenger, Gray and Christmas September report](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf) released October 1. Employer examples come from each employer's own careers site or press release, checked between October 5 and October 6.

Two limitations are stated rather than smoothed over. First, the most recent inflation reading available at publication covers August, so the comparison of September pay growth with prices sets September wages against August prices. Second, the 12-month sector comparisons, and the count of months in which each industry group posted the largest gain, are our own arithmetic on the BLS industry table and use the seasonally adjusted levels for September 2025 and September 2026. The pay and price comparison sets seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings against the not seasonally adjusted CPI, the same basis BLS uses for headline 12-month changes. The three expectations for next quarter are Metaintro's outlook, labelled as such. Nothing else in this report is estimated or modelled by Metaintro. Journalists may use the four charts in this report, which you can download below, with credit to Metaintro and a link to this page.

Download the charts (PNG, free to use with credit to Metaintro): [The Month in 5 Numbers](https://www.metaintro.com/api/media/file/sotw-september-2026-month-in-5-numbers.png?prefix=images), [Payroll trend](https://www.metaintro.com/api/media/file/sotw-september-2026-jobs-trend.png?prefix=images), [Job cuts by reason](https://www.metaintro.com/api/media/file/sotw-september-2026-job-cuts-by-reason.png?prefix=images) and [Workforce forecast](https://www.metaintro.com/api/media/file/sotw-september-2026-workforce-forecast.png?prefix=images).

## Sources

Every figure in this report is drawn from one of the releases below. Government releases are listed first, then research providers, then employer and news sources.

### Government Data and Official Releases

- [The Employment Situation, September 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) (USDL-26-1549). US Bureau of Labor Statistics, released October 2, 2026
- [Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, August 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm). US Bureau of Labor Statistics, released September 29, 2026
- [Consumer Price Index, August 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm). US Bureau of Labor Statistics, released September 11, 2026
- [Real Earnings, August 2026](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm). US Bureau of Labor Statistics, released September 11, 2026
- [Current Employment Statistics and CPI national series](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000003), CES0000000001, CES0500000001, CES0500000003 and CUUR0000SA0. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via the BLS public API on October 6, 2026
- [Current Employment Statistics supersector series](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES6500000001), employment by industry group, October 2024 to September 2026. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via the BLS public API on October 6, 2026
- [Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims](https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2026/100126.pdf), week ending September 26, 2026. US Department of Labor, released October 1, 2026
- [FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm). Federal Reserve, September 16, 2026
- [FOMC meeting calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). Federal Reserve
- [BLS release calendar](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/). US Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Labor Market Research

- [ADP National Employment Report, September 2026](https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-30-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-90,000-Jobs-in-September). ADP, September 30, 2026
- [Job Cuts Fall in September, Hiring Plans Up 3% Over 2025 On Weak Early Seasonal Hiring](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-september-hiring-plans-up-3-over-2025-on-weak-early-seasonal-hiring/). Challenger, Gray and Christmas blog, October 1, 2026
- [September 2026 Challenger Report](https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Challenger-Report-September-2026.pdf). Challenger, Gray and Christmas, October 1, 2026
- [September 2026 Jobs Report, Steadiness Without a Spark](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/10/02/september-2026-jobs-report-steadiness-without-a-spark/). Indeed Hiring Lab, October 2, 2026
- [US Labor Market Snapshot, September 2026](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/09/24/us-labor-market-snapshot-september-2026/). Indeed Hiring Lab, September 24, 2026
- [August 2026 JOLTS Report, Little Change, Limited Dynamism](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/09/29/august-2026-jolts-report/). Indeed Hiring Lab, September 29, 2026
- [September 2026 FOMC Reaction, Walking a Fine Line](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/09/16/september-2026-fomc-reaction-walking-a-fine-line/). Indeed Hiring Lab, September 16, 2026

### Employer and News Sources

- [Washington WARN notices database](https://esd.wa.gov/employer-requirements/layoffs-and-employee-notifications/worker-adjustment-and-retraining-notification-warn-layoff-and-closure-database), including notices filed by Microsoft, Oracle, Uber and Washington orchard employers. Washington State Employment Security Department, notices received September 2026
- [California WARN report](https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Layoff_Services_WARN). California Employment Development Department, through September 30, 2026
- [Dara Khosrowshahi message to Uber employees](https://www.uber.com/us/en/newsroom/simplerfasteruber/). Uber Newsroom, September 2, 2026
- [Continuing Our Reset](https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/09/22/continuing-our-reset/). Xbox Wire, September 22, 2026
- [Spirit Halloween seasonal hiring announcement](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/spirit-summons-52-000-seasonal-associates-for-a-scary-big-hiring-season-302797620.html). Spirit Halloween, June 11, 2026
- [Michaels holiday seasonal hiring announcement](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/michaels-prepares-for-the-holiday-season-with-more-than-10-000-seasonal-job-opportunities-302875690.html). Michaels, September 10, 2026
- [Macy's, Inc. seasonal hiring announcement](https://www.macysinc.com/newsroom/news/news-details/2026/Macys-Inc--Hiring-Nationwide-to-Create-a-Season-of-Celebration-2026-vI9aD1t--y/default.aspx). Macy's, Inc., September 24, 2026
- Job postings on the careers sites of Advocate Health, OhioHealth, Rosendin, H. B. McClure, Comfort Systems USA, Caterpillar, AriensCo and Plastipak, posted September 10 to October 5, 2026
- [State of the Workforce August 2026, The Rebound You Could Not Apply To](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/state-of-the-workforce-august-2026). Metaintro, September 2026, for last month's figures
- [Uber is laying off 10% of staff, or 3,300 people](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/02/uber-is-laying-off-10-of-staff-or-3300-people/). TechCrunch, September 2, 2026
- [Company that provides security screening at SFO laying off nearly 1,300 workers](https://www.kron4.com/news/company-that-provides-security-screening-at-sfo-laying-off-nearly-1300-workers/). KRON4, September 29, 2026

## Recommended Reading

- [Amazon's New $20 Floor Lifts Average Warehouse Pay Near $24 an Hour](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/amazon-20-floor-warehouse-pay)
- [1,341 Springfield Truck Plant Workers Laid Off as Buyer Roshel Says It Is Working to More Than Double the Workforce Over the Coming Years](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/springfield-ohio-truck-plant-1341-layoffs-roshel)
- [New Jersey Layoffs Hit 12,980 in 2026, a 45 Percent Jump Over Last Year](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/new-jersey-layoffs-12980-2026-warn-notices)
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- [Florida's Minimum Wage Reaches 15 Dollars on September 30 and Tipped Pay Hits 11.98](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/florida-minimum-wage-15-dollars-september-2026)
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- [Workers Without a Degree Are Having Their Best Job Market in Years](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/workers-without-degree-best-job-market)

**Stay ahead of the market.** [Metaintro](https://www.metaintro.com) tracks the labor market daily so you do not have to. [Join free](https://www.metaintro.com/signup) and get the roles, the pay data and the market signal in one place.

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For job seekers

## Ready to find a role that actually fits?

Upload your résumé, start a Job Search Thread, and let Metaintro rank real openings against your experience — then guide you from search to offer.

[Get Started Free](/signup)[Search matching jobs](/jobs/search)

Match

Compare live roles against your current evidence.

Position

Turn proof projects into role-specific applications.

Improve

Use market feedback to keep the skill plan current.

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