--- title: "Your Next Pay Rise Argument Just Got Harder as UK Payrolls…" canonical: "https://www.metaintro.com/blog/uk-wage-growth-39-state-pension" language: "en" author: "drashtigarach" published: "2026-09-17T18:07:56.000Z" modified: "2026-09-17T18:07:56.000Z" --- [Back to Blog](/blog) [News](/blog/tag/news)[Jobs](/blog/tag/jobs)[Labor Market](/blog/tag/labor-market)[Salary](/blog/tag/salary)[Economy](/blog/tag/economy) # Your Next Pay Rise Argument Just Got Harder as UK Payrolls Shed 101,000 Jobs UK pay growth fell to 3.9% while payrolls shrank again. What it means for your next rise, and whether you have the years on record to get the full state pension. [![Drashti Garach](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:40:40/q:72/plain/images/5719d740-e510-42bc-8017-e040d145f35f_1766029465094.png)Drashti Garach @DrashtiGarach](/blog/author/drashtigarach) [September 17, 2026](/blog/archive/2026/09)12 min read ![Your Next Pay Rise Argument Just Got Harder as UK Payrolls Shed 101,000 Jobs](https://cdn.metaintro.com/rs:fill:1200:675/q:78/plain/images/10284.jpg) [https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=Your%20Next%20Pay%20Rise%20Argument%20Just%20Got%20Harder%20as%20UK%20Payrolls%20Shed%20101%2C000%20Jobs&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=Your%20Next%20Pay%20Rise%20Argument%20Just%20Got%20Harder%20as%20UK%20Payrolls%20Shed%20101%2C000%20Jobs&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension)[http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension](http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension)[https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension&title=Your%20Next%20Pay%20Rise%20Argument%20Just%20Got%20Harder%20as%20UK%20Payrolls%20Shed%20101%2C000%20Jobs](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension&title=Your%20Next%20Pay%20Rise%20Argument%20Just%20Got%20Harder%20as%20UK%20Payrolls%20Shed%20101%2C000%20Jobs)[mailto:?subject=Your%20Next%20Pay%20Rise%20Argument%20Just%20Got%20Harder%20as%20UK%20Payrolls%20Shed%20101%2C000%20Jobs&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension](mailto:?subject=Your%20Next%20Pay%20Rise%20Argument%20Just%20Got%20Harder%20as%20UK%20Payrolls%20Shed%20101%2C000%20Jobs&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaintro.com%2Fblog%2Fuk-wage-growth-39-state-pension) Average UK wages grew [3.9 per cent](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html) in the three months to July, and payrolled employee numbers fell again. Two things follow from one number. Your negotiating position at work just weakened, and the state pension is now on course to rise next April because of the same figure. At [Metaintro](https://www.metaintro.com) we follow a labour market release through to the decision it changes for you. Here is what the data says, what the pension will pay, and whether your own record actually qualifies for it. ## What Did the Latest Figures Show? A slowdown rather than a reversal. Weekly wages grew [3.9 per cent](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html) between May and July, the [same figure](https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/uk-pay-growth-slows-crunch-062514000.html) reported for average UK wages in the three months to July, and down from [4.2 per cent](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html) in the three months to June. Two consecutive readings moving down is the start of a pattern rather than noise. Underneath the pay figure the employment picture is weaker. Payrolled employees fell by [101,000, or 0.3 per cent](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026), between July 2025 and July 2026, and by 19,000 between June and July 2026. The most recent month looks worse again. The early estimate for August 2026 shows payrolled employees down [145,000, or 0.5 per cent](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026), on the year and down 26,000 on the month. > Payrolls shrank while pay growth slowed. That combination removes the argument that employers cannot find anyone, which is the argument most pay rises are won with. Comparing like with like tells the same story. For May to July 2026, the period comparable with the Labour Force Survey estimates, payrolled employees fell by [84,000](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) over the year and by 39,000 over the quarter. ## Why Does Wage Growth Decide the State Pension? Because of a rule that links the two directly, and it is worth understanding even if retirement is decades away. The triple lock raises the pension by whichever is highest out of [wage growth, inflation or 2.5 per cent](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html). When wage growth is the highest of the three, the pension rises by the number workers just earned. That is what is happening now. Consumer Price Index inflation is projected to stay [below the 3.9 per cent benchmark](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html) over the key September measurement period, with the Bank of England expecting a peak around 3.2 per cent this autumn. The mechanics are more legalistic than the shorthand suggests. Radio 4 Moneybox expert Paul Lewis argues the expected rise is [nothing to do with the triple lock](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html), because the law says the pension rises by wages unless the Secretary of State decides otherwise, making the triple lock policy rather than law. Nothing is final yet. The figures are revised on [October 20](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html), official September inflation lands on [21 October](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html), and the Department for Work and Pensions confirms revised payment rates after that. ## How Much Does the Pension Actually Rise? The numbers are concrete enough to plan around. The full new state pension would rise from [£241.30 a week](https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/uk-pay-growth-slows-crunch-062514000.html), about £12,500 a year, to £250.70 a week, about £13,000 a year, from next April. That annual figure is put at [£13,036](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html), a weekly increase of £9.40, and amounts to a rise of about [£488 a year](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l8v7l0djqo). Older pensioners are on a different rate. For the two thirds who reached qualifying age before April 2016 and receive the old basic pension, the rise takes it to [£192.10 a week](https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/uk-pay-growth-slows-crunch-062514000.html), about £9,990 a year. There is a tax trap in the background. The tax free personal allowance is frozen at [£12,570](https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/uk-pay-growth-slows-crunch-062514000.html) until 2031, which is why experts warned retirees could pay income tax on the state pension for the first time, though ministers moved to reassure pensioners with no other income. ## Will You Actually Get the Full New State Pension? Only if your record qualifies, and this is the part the headline figures never mention. You need [ten qualifying years](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension) on your National Insurance record to get any new state pension at all. Not a reduced one. Any. Below ten years the £250.70 figure is not a smaller number for you, it is nothing. Those years do not all have to come from employment. Qualifying years can also come from [National Insurance credits](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension) awarded when you were unemployed, ill, or acting as a parent or carer, which matters enormously for anyone who took time out to raise children or look after a relative. How much you get above the minimum depends on how many qualifying years you have, and the only reliable way to know is to check your [state pension forecast](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension) rather than assume. It is a free check and most people have never run it. Two routes are widely missed. You may qualify through [time lived or worked abroad](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension) or through reduced rate National Insurance paid by married women, and in some cases you can inherit or increase your pension through a [spouse or civil partner](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension). Working abroad later does not necessarily cut you off either. You can [claim the state pension abroad](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension) if you have paid enough National Insurance, although the amount can be affected by where you retire to. ## How Do You Fill a Gap in Your Record? There are three levers, and all of them work better the earlier you pull them. The first is voluntary contributions. You may be able to pay [voluntary National Insurance](https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age) to fill gaps from periods when you were not working or claiming benefits, which is the direct way to buy back a missing year. The second is deferral. You might be able to [increase the amount](https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age) you receive by delaying the point at which you start taking the pension, which is a real option if you are still earning. The third is simply carrying on working. Your state pension age is the [earliest age](https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age) you can start receiving it, not a deadline, and you can keep working after reaching it because a forced retirement age of 65 no longer exists. One caution on planning. The state pension age is [regularly reviewed](https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age), so a date you checked years ago may no longer be the date that applies to you. > Ten qualifying years is the difference between a pension and no pension. Check the forecast, not the headline. ## Where Is Pay Actually Growing? Not evenly, and this is the split that should shape your expectations more than the headline. Public sector regular pay grew [6.3 per cent](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) over the year while the private sector managed 2.9 per cent, a gap of more than double. The figure is affected by the timing of public pay awards, but if you work in the private sector the honest benchmark for your next conversation is the lower number rather than the national average. Strip out bonuses and the picture is calmer. Regular earnings growth was [3.5 per cent](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) and has been relatively stable across five consecutive three month periods, after a year of slowing. The volatility is in bonuses, not in basic pay. The headline figure is at a five year low. Total earnings growth of [3.9 per cent](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) was last lower in September to November 2020, when it was 3.7 per cent, which tells you how unusual the current reading is. In real terms you are still slightly ahead, but only just. Adjusted for inflation, regular pay rose [0.6 per cent](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) and total pay 0.9 per cent on the CPIH measure, or 0.8 and 1.1 per cent using CPI. That is the actual improvement in your spending power over a year, and it is thin enough that a single unexpected bill erases it. ## How Hard Is It to Get Hired Right Now? Harder than at any point since 2014 on the vacancy measure, and that is the number job seekers should be watching. Vacancies fell to an estimated [702,000](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) in June to August, down 8,000 on the previous quarter. Outside the pandemic period, the last time the count was [that low](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) was August to October 2014. That is an eleven year low in the number of open jobs. The reason given is cost rather than confidence. Feedback from the vacancy survey suggests [smaller firms may not be recruiting](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) because of increases in labour costs, which means the shortfall is concentrated among exactly the employers who usually hire fastest and interview most informally. The wider measures agree. The unemployment rate was [4.9 per cent](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) in May to July, up 0.2 percentage points on the year, the employment rate was 75.1 per cent, and the claimant count rose on both the month and the year to an estimated 1.692 million in August. Payrolled employment now stands at [30.2 million](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026), having generally fallen over the last two years. Public sector employment moved the other way, up [33,000 on the year to 6.21 million](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026), which is worth knowing if you are deciding where to aim. ## Is the Triple Lock Under Pressure? Yes, and the argument is about cost rather than principle. Labour pledged to keep the triple lock [until 2029](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l8v7l0djqo), while economists have warned about the cost ahead of the Budget and pensioner groups point to continuing poverty in old age. State pension spending already stands at [£154bn](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l8v7l0djqo) this year, with the state pension age rising to 67. Critics use strong language. Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, has called the policy [crazy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l8v7l0djqo), describing a ratchet in which pensioners' living standards grow faster than those of working people. The political timing sharpens it. The slowdown adds to the [challenges facing the chancellor](https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/uk-pay-growth-slows-crunch-062514000.html) at next month's budget, which is where any change would have to appear. ## What Does Slowing Pay Growth Mean for Your Next Offer? It changes the evidence available to you, not the size of your ambition. A falling headline rate becomes the employer's opening argument. When average growth is [3.9 per cent and falling](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html) from 4.2, a manager will quote the average back at you, so go in with your own sector and role comparison rather than the national figure. Shrinking payrolls matter more than the pay number. A fall of [101,000 over the year](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) means fewer vacancies competing for you, which is the actual source of leverage in any negotiation. Where your specific skill is still scarce, that is the case to make, and it has to be made with local evidence. Timing has shifted too. With the early August estimate down [145,000](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) on the year, the market is loosening rather than tightening, which favours securing an internal rise over testing an external move for anyone without a clear specialism. ## What This Means for Workers and Job Seekers, and What Should You Do Now? Do the pension check first, because it is free and most people never do it. Ten qualifying years is the [gate](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension) and your forecast tells you where you stand against it in minutes. If you have gaps, price them now. Voluntary [National Insurance contributions](https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age) get more expensive to think about the longer they sit, and credits for caring or unemployment may already have covered periods you assumed were blank. At work, stop quoting the national average. Pay growth of [3.9 per cent](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html) is the number your employer will use, so bring role specific evidence instead and make the scarcity argument rather than the cost of living one. If you are job hunting, read the payroll fall as timing information. With employee numbers down [101,000 on the year](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026), processes are slower and competition is higher, so apply earlier and keep an existing offer alive longer than you would in a tight market. And watch the two October dates. The revision on [October 20](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html) and the inflation release on [21 October](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html) decide the final pension figure, so nothing announced before then is settled. ## Related Articles - [The UK Just Published the Names of Employers That Underpaid Their Staff](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/uk-minimum-wage-naming-list-underpaid-workers) - [How to Negotiate a Job Offer After You Have It in Writing](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/how-to-negotiate-a-job-offer) - [How to Negotiate Salary in an Interview](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/negotiate-salary-in-an-interview) - [The K-Shaped Job Market May Finally Be Closing Its Wage Gap](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/k-shaped-job-market-closing-wage-gap) - [Your Retirement Benefit Is Probably Fine, Most Workers Just Never Set It Up](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/retirement-benefit-fine-most-workers-never-set-up) - [Tech Leads Every Industry in Wage Growth Despite the Layoff Headlines](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/tech-leads-wage-growth-despite-layoff-headlines) - [The Negotiation Penalty and Why Women Pay More for Asking](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/negotiation-penalty-why-women-pay-more-for-asking) - [Japan's Wages Are Rising After Decades of Stagnation, and What It Means](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/japan-wages-rising-after-decades-stagnation-what-it-signals-workers) - [How the Dutch Are Solving the Youth Jobs Crisis and What the UK Can Learn](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/how-dutch-solving-youth-jobs-crisis-what-uk-can-learn) - [How We Calculate Posted Pay](https://www.metaintro.com/blog/posted-pay-methodology) ## People Also Asked ### Q: How much will the state pension rise in April? A: The full new state pension is set to rise from [£241.30 a week](https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/uk-pay-growth-slows-crunch-062514000.html) to £250.70, about [£13,036](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html) a year, a rise of roughly [£488](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l8v7l0djqo). Final rates are confirmed after the October figures. ### Q: How many years do I need for the full state pension? A: You need [ten qualifying years](https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension) on your National Insurance record to get any new state pension, and how much you get above that depends on your total qualifying years, which you can see on your forecast. ### Q: Why did UK pay growth fall? A: Average wages grew [3.9 per cent](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/state-pension-set-rise-3-062300520.html) in the three months to July, down from [4.2 per cent](https://britbrief.co.uk/business/employment/state-pension-set-for-39-rise-to-13036-figures-show.html), alongside payrolled employee numbers falling by [101,000](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026) over the year to July. Stay ahead of the market. [Metaintro](https://www.metaintro.com) tracks UK pay and hiring by role and region, so you can argue your next rise with numbers that actually apply to your job. 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