Holiday Hiring 2026 Sends Mixed Signals, and What That Means for Seasonal Job Seekers

Seasonal retail hiring is forecast to fall below last year's level to 450,000 retail jobs added in the fourth quarter, in the September outlook from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Yet Amazon's 2026 plan marks a 20% increase in jobs on its 2025 pledge, while UPS plans 100,000 seasonal employees, fewer than its 2025 target, CNBC reported. Together with fewer retailers naming headcounts, those moves are part of why Andy Challenger calls the season one of mixed signals. The short answer for job seekers is that holiday jobs are still there, but many of the biggest U.S. companies are staying quiet about their Q4 plans. For Metaintro readers looking for holiday work, this guide sets out which employers have published numbers, which have gone quiet, what the jobs ask for and pay, and how to turn a few weeks of work into something longer.

Why Are the 2026 Holiday Hiring Signals Mixed?

The mixed picture comes from employers pulling in opposite directions. Amazon made its plan public on Oct. 20, and UPS on Oct. 7.

At the same time, large retailers like Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. have again refrained from announcing their seasonal recruiting plans, marking a departure from pandemic-era hiring sprees, Bloomberg reported.

Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray and Christmas, does not expect a boom. He told CNBC Make It that I don't expect this to be an explosive seasonal hiring year like we saw in '21 and '22, though after the Amazon news he added that there's reason to be a little bit more positive than we originally thought.

Quiet plans continue the trend that emerged in 2024 as Retailers shifted toward flexible, on-demand staffing models. The pattern suggests Retailers are again planning to lean on existing staff and on-demand pools rather than committing to large seasonal waves this early, Challenger said.

How Many Seasonal Retail Jobs Are Expected This Year?

Two well-known forecasts measure different things, so it helps to read them side by side. The Challenger forecast counts Retail jobs added during the fourth quarter. Retailers added 461,500 jobs in the final quarter of 2025, the smallest seasonal gain since 2008, which was 15% below the 543,100 added in Q4 2024, in the firm's analysis of non-seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The expected drop for 2026 is 2.5% year over year, Challenger forecast. A lower 2026 total would mark the lowest holiday recruitment since 2008, so the worst-since-2008 label rests on a forecast, not a final count.

The National Retail Federation frames its forecast in seasonal workers. It expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year's estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs. NRF links that caution to higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt.

Both are forecasts, not counts of open jobs, and they cover different windows, since NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 while Challenger measures the whole fourth quarter. For context, retail employed 15.47 million workers in August 2026, up by just over 63,000 jobs from a year ago, in preliminary federal figures.

Challenger calls this year more about restocking staffing plans surgically than a return to the 900,000-plus seasonal hiring years we saw in 2020 and 2021.

Almost every hiring announcement we've seen in the last three years is smaller and more surgical than the pre-pandemic playbook, Andy Challenger said, according to the Challenger 2026 holiday hiring outlook.

Which Employers Have Published Holiday Headcounts So Far?

A small group of employers has put numbers on the table. Amazon is hiring over 300,000 people for seasonal, part-time, and full-time roles, and the details are in Amazon is hiring more than 300,000 holiday workers.

UPS is going the other way, though the size of its cut depends on which outlet's count you use. UPS will hire 100,000 seasonal employees across the US ahead of the holiday season, about 9% fewer than 2025, marking the second straight year of reduced recruitment, Reuters reported. The UPS plan is more than 100,000 seasonal workers, which is roughly in line with previous years, Bloomberg reported. The UPS 2025 annual report shows that it hired 15,000 fewer seasonal workers that year, compared with the 125,000 seasonal staff it hired in 2024.

Michaels plans to hire more than 10,000 seasonal Team Members across the U.S. and Canada.

Dick's Sporting Goods and Foot Locker expect to hire over 11,000 seasonal teammates for the upcoming 2026 holiday season in the company's own hiring release, a number around 20% lower than last year. That breaks down as about 8,400 seasonal employees across its Dick's Sporting Goods, Dick's House of Sport, Going Going Gone and Public Lands stores and 2,900 seasonal workers for its Foot Locker, Kid's Foot Locker, WSS and Champs Sports stores. For the 2025 holiday season, the company had set out to hire 14,000 store associates.

Which Big Retailers Have Stayed Quiet, and What Did They Hire Before?

Several big names that once published early targets have not done so this year. Bath & Body Works has committed to 30,000+ associates in each of the last three seasons and normally goes public in early September, but it had not disclosed a 2026 figure by the Challenger outlook in September.

Target has held its number of hires at 100,000 for the past several years, and Kohl's hired roughly 90,000 for most of the past decade. In early October, both chains were in the midst of their seasonal hiring push but had not specified hiring targets, in HR Dive's coverage.

Target's approach this year puts its own staff first. The chain would lean on its existing workforce before looking for seasonal hires.

A quiet employer is not a closed one, and store-level applications follow the steps in how to get a job at Walmart, Costco, and other big-box retailers.

What Do UPS Seasonal Jobs Require?

UPS lists its seasonal roles on the UPS jobs events page, and its job fair will highlight Warehouse Workers, Package Delivery Drivers, Tractor-Trailer Drivers, Driver Helpers, and Seasonal Support Drivers. On the same UPS page, the answer is that most of the positions we're currently hiring are seasonal, though some seasonal workers are invited to join the team full time each year.

The Seasonal Support Driver job means getting to work from your own vehicle. To qualify, you just need to be 21+, able to lift up to 70 lbs and have a clean, valid driver's license. Your vehicle must be registered and reliable, have a closed-top or covered bed, and have no other company logos or bumper stickers on it. Pay is weekly, and these drivers also receive a mileage reimbursement and a phone stipend is available in some locations.

Driver Helpers ride along with a Package Delivery Driver, and the role asks for stamina and reliability, the ability to lift up to 70 lbs, customer focus and friendly demeanor. Driver Helpers are usually only hired in October, November and December.

Every seasonal role at UPS has a fixed end. In a seasonal role there will be a set end date to your position, and the busy season is typically from October to December, and some roles may require early morning or midnight shifts.

How Fast Can You Get Hired, and Is There a Job Fair?

The UPS process is quick. For many roles, you could get a job offer in under 10 minutes after applying online, and you could start the following week once onboarding is complete.

The UPS Annual Job Fair is a virtual event, and the two-day event will take place on November 6 and 7, 2026. It is information only, and there is no interviewing or hiring done during the event. Attendance is optional, since all applications need to be submitted online and offers are not based on attending.

Amazon posts its openings in waves. New job opportunities will be posted weekly from October through December, and Amazon asks applicants to sign up for local job alerts.

Michaels held its National Hiring Day events in September, and applications also go online at Careers.Michaels.com. Dick's will continue to hire until positions are filled.

What Do the Announced Jobs Pay and Offer?

Amazon publishes an average pay figure. Its seasonal employees now earn an average of $20 an hour. From January 1, 2027, eligible seasonal staff working at least 30 hours a week will have access to healthcare coverage on their first day, with plan options that start at $5 a week with $5 copays. Eligible workers hired before January 1 will gain access to coverage on that date.

Michaels names benefits rather than a wage. New and existing workers can also take advantage of competitive wages, flexible hours and a 30% discount, and current staff can pick up additional holiday hours.

UPS does not give one national rate. Pay is competitive but will vary depending on position and location, so the hourly wage is listed on each posting near you.

When a posting quotes an hourly rate, the formula in hourly to annual salary conversion turns it into a yearly figure.

Why Is Warehouse and Delivery Hiring Forecast to Hold Flat?

Transportation and warehousing employers added 266,500 positions in Q4 2025, down 12% from 2024 and the lowest Q4 total since 2018. Challenger forecasts a similar total in 2026, as logistics firms lean on automation, robotics, flexible scheduling and year-round staff.

The smaller UPS target comes after UPS trimmed its permanent workforce and as inflationary pressure impacts consumer spending, Reuters reported. In January, UPS set out plans to cut up to 30,000 operational jobs and close 24 facilities in 2026 in a bid to scale down shipments for its largest customer, Amazon, and shift towards more profitable shipments.

The work itself is still there at peak. The holiday season is the busiest period for parcel delivery companies, during which daily volumes tend to double, and the seasonal staff will help sort, move and deliver packages during the holiday rush.

AI, robotics and automation continue to reshape this part of the market, and the traditional seasonal spike in shipping jobs has been dulled, and every year that shift looks a little more permanent, Andy Challenger said.

Will Shoppers Spend Enough to Keep Seasonal Workers Busy?

Spending is still expected to grow. The National Retail Federation forecasts that retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025. That translates to total spending of $1.013 trillion for November and December, NRF estimated. In 2025, holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 totaling $972 billion.

Online spending is also expected to rise, and US shoppers will spend $275.1 billion online in November and December, up 6.7% from 2025, Adobe Inc. forecast. Separately, Bain & Company projects a $1 trillion breakthrough in holiday retail sales across the U.S. in 2026, a historic first boosted by inflation, a figure that, in Andy Challenger's words, doesn't necessarily mean more sales or more revenue or profit.

August retail sales jumped 1.2%, yet that resilience is not translating into large, early hiring commitments from the biggest Retailers, in Andy Challenger's September comments, weeks before Amazon's plan went public.

This year's forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said, according to the NRF holiday forecast release.

Can a Holiday Job Turn Into a Permanent One?

Sometimes, and Michaels publishes how often. At Michaels, nearly 50% of seasonal in-store positions converting to regular roles following the holidays last year in the company's September 2026 hiring release, and the company describes pathways into store leadership and Support Center teams.

At Amazon, seasonal staff have the opportunity to transition into full-time roles, and some go on to become trainers, managers, and leaders. Eligible Amazon employees can also use prepaid tuition through Career Choice of up to $5,250 a year.

UPS frames its seasonal roles as a first step, calling a seasonal role a great first step to a career at UPS. In a permanent UPS role, by contrast, you work year-round in either a part or full-time hourly position.

Staying on after the season is one version of how to successfully transition from part-time to full-time work.

What This Means for Seasonal Job Seekers, and What Should You Do Next?

The published plans can be lined up against last year. Of the published plans that compare with last year, only the Amazon plan is higher, while the Dick's Sporting Goods plan is lower and the UPS plan is lower, Reuters reported. For job seekers, the practical moves are to apply now, apply to several employers and pick roles with a path to staying on.

• Apply now rather than waiting for December. Amazon seasonal roles can fill quickly.
• Go where the numbers are. The employers with published targets include Amazon and UPS, along with Michaels and Dick's Sporting Goods.
• Check the quiet chains directly. Use the Target and Kohl's careers sites and visit local stores rather than waiting for a headline number.
• Pick roles that can convert. Michaels describes pathways for seasonal staff into regular roles and Amazon offers the opportunity to transition into full-time roles, and those are the roles to target if staying on matters to you.
• Know the healthcare rule. Amazon's day-one healthcare for qualifying seasonal staff starts in the new year, and it covers seasonal employees who work at least 30 hours a week.

Lacey Kaelani, Metaintro's CEO, puts it this way: A holiday job is a short audition. Apply early, take the shifts others skip and ask on day one what it takes to stay on after the season.

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People Also Asked

Q: Is holiday hiring down this year?

A: For stores, the Challenger forecast expects retail hiring to fall below last year's level, while the NRF expects seasonal hiring to land in line with last year, so the answer depends on which measure you use.

Q: Which companies are hiring seasonal workers for the holidays?

A: Published plans include Amazon and UPS, along with the Michaels holiday hiring plan and the Dick's Sporting Goods plan, while Target and Kohl's had not specified hiring targets in early October.

Q: Do I need a driver's license for a UPS seasonal job?

A: Not for every role, since a Driver Helper needs no driver's license, while a Seasonal Support Driver needs a clean, valid driver's license and must be 21 or older.

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