Young People Entering Routine Jobs Are the IMF Chief's Biggest AI Worry as AI Spending Keeps Growth Near 3%

Artificial intelligence spending is keeping the world economy growing at around 3 percent even as an energy supply shock drags on it, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told participants on the first day of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Monday, October 12. She also said she is already seeing first wave of impact from AI, and that her biggest worry is impact on young people entering job market in routine, repetitive jobs. For Metaintro readers, the useful part sits under the growth headline, in what the IMF's own research shows about which jobs are shrinking, which ones pay more, and where the World Bank expects new work to come from. This guide separates the new remarks from older IMF numbers that are being repeated this week.

What Did Georgieva Say About AI and Growth in Bangkok?

The session was called Small AI: More and Better Jobs. It was organized by the World Bank, opened a week of meetings, and was held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in the Thai capital. The panel also included World Bank Group President Ajay Banga and Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, followed by remarks from Thailand's finance minister.

Georgieva described the AI boom as a demand shock, an investment shock. The first wave is being driven by rising demand and investment, including the construction of data centres and investment in AI models, and that process supports growth in a relatively small number of economies.

The global economy continues to grow at around 3% despite the adverse impact of the energy supply shock, Georgieva noted. The US, China and India are among the leading AI producers, she said, while many of the firms building the needed infrastructure are in Asia, including in Thailand.

The next wave, she said, will come from the wider adoption of AI. IMF estimates indicate AI adoption could boost growth in advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point, and by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point in emerging Asia, and an extra 1 percentage point in advanced Asia would more than offset the drag from population ageing, she said. To get there, developing economies need access to electricity and digital infrastructure, must prepare their populations to use the technology and must put safeguards in place to prevent abuse.

Which Workers Did She Say Are Most at Risk?

She highlighted the particular importance of the issue for young people entering the workforce. New entrants typically begin their careers by performing routine and repetitive tasks before gradually progressing up the career ladder, and a decline in these entry-level roles could make that path more difficult.

IMF research on the US labour market shows 10% of jobs already require higher levels of AI-related skills, and those positions command higher wages. Routine, repetitive jobs were shrinking while low-paying jobs grew in construction and data centers. Lower-paid positions are increasing in construction, data centres and services. That US work is an initial study, so treat it as early evidence.

The net effect across the part of the US labour market examined is positive, but this is no reason for complacency, Georgieva said, because the gains are concentrated in lower-paid jobs. She also warned it is impossible to predict precisely what the world of work will look like in five years.

Her three tasks for governments were to monitor changes in the labour market, rethink education and promote lifelong learning, and assess the implications for public finances. Growth of AI could also raise questions about how governments generate tax revenue, given the expected shift from labor to capital, she said.

This is a slow-moving tsunami, but it is still a tsunami, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in Bangkok on October 12, as rendered by the BTA report from Bangkok.

Are the 40% and 60% Job Figures New?

No. Georgieva repeated that over time AI could lead to 40% of jobs being augmented, downgraded or eliminated, with 60% in advanced economies versus 23% in low-income countries. The 40% and 60% shares appear in IMF analysis published in January 2024.

In January 2024 the IMF found almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI, and in advanced economies about 60 percent of jobs may be impacted by AI. An IMF Staff Discussion Note on generative AI and the world of work was published on 14 January 2024, the same day.

One number differs. IMF analysis in 2024 expected AI exposure in emerging markets and low-income countries to be 40 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In Bangkok, Georgieva put the low-income share at 23%.

The word that matters is exposure, not loss. In 2024 the IMF found that roughly half the exposed jobs may benefit from AI integration, enhancing productivity in advanced economies. For the other half, AI could lower labor demand, leading to lower wages and reduced hiring.

The lower share for low-income countries does not mean those countries are better positioned, Georgieva indicated, but that AI has yet to become as widespread there. Back in 2024 the IMF warned that emerging markets and low-income countries don't have the infrastructure or skilled workforces to harness the benefits of AI.

In 2024 the IMF made a different point on age, expecting that younger workers may find it easier to exploit opportunities, while older workers could struggle to adapt. In Bangkok, the worry named was young people entering job market in routine, repetitive jobs.

What Does IMF Skills Research Say About Pay for New Skills?

A separate IMF analysis of millions of online job vacancies, set out by Georgieva in a blog post reported in January 2026, found one in 10 job postings in advanced economies and one in 20 in emerging market economies now require at least one new skill. Demand for new skills is also growing in specific sectors, such as telecare in healthcare and social media in marketing.

Employers are willing to pay more for workers with new skills. In the UK and the US, postings requiring at least one new skill offer wages about 3% higher, while roles demanding four or more new skills can pay up to 15% more in the UK and 8.5% more in the US.

The same work found high-skill and low-skill workers benefit the most, while middle-skill roles, such as routine office jobs, are increasingly under pressure. Professional, technical, and managerial roles account for the bulk of demand for new skills, with information technology responsible for more than half of it.

AI-related roles command wage premiums, but they have not yet translated into job growth. In regions with high demand for AI skills, employment in AI-vulnerable occupations was 3.6% lower after five years compared with regions with lower demand. Georgieva tied this trend to young people, because entry-level jobs tend to be more exposed to automation.

What Did the IMF Say Before Bangkok, in the October 7 Curtain Raiser?

Georgieva gave her 2026 Annual Meetings Curtain Raiser speech in Singapore on Wednesday (October 7). It was delivered on October 7, 2026, as a Curtain Raiser for the 2026 Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

IMF research suggests AI, if done right, could over time deliver up to half a percentage point of extra world growth annually, which Georgieva compared with adding an economy roughly the size of ASEAN to the world economy over time. AI hardware and related products already account for more than 10% of world goods trade.

Georgieva warned that the benefits are highly concentrated. AI risks widening global inequality by largely bypassing most economies, and among the major risks to manage the IMF listed large-scale labor market fallout. The region hosting the meetings has grown fast, with Asia-Pacific's share of global GDP rising from about 25% to 43% since Thailand last hosted in 1991.

The IMF's structural reform list starts with better workforce skills and more flexible labor markets, and Singapore ranks at the very top of the IMF's AI preparedness index.

Where Does the World Bank See New Jobs Coming From?

Banga stressed the need to create employment opportunities for young people in developing countries. Over the next 15 years, 1.2 billion young people will reach working age, he said, and the private sector generates between 75 and 85% of jobs in a country.

He named five areas with job potential, infrastructure, smallholder agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism and higher-value-added manufacturing. The World Bank wants to use small AI, which is not dependent on large language models, to lift productivity for farmers, healthcare systems and educators in emerging markets.

In an Indonesian health centre, a nurse can photograph a skin rash with a mobile phone and send the image to a doctor. In an ongoing initiative in India, a farmer can point a standard smartphone at a diseased leaf to identify the issue, order the correct insecticide and pay through a digital bank account. The goal is to build jobs that respond to local needs, rather than simply shifting employment from advanced to developing economies.

Why Did Singapore's President Single Out the First Job After Graduation?

In Tharman's view, governments should address how AI was reducing job opportunities for graduates. Demand for entry-level graduate positions is already declining, particularly in technology sectors, and in the US, demand for university graduates has fallen for the first time in a century, he said, while their wage premium has narrowed significantly.

The first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand, Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in Bangkok, according to the Jakarta Post's Reuters report.

He also argued that displacement would happen gradually, task by task, which would give workers time to adapt and add skills. His fixes were for governments to introduce structural public policies and incentives that encourage private sector firms to hire and train fresh graduates, and for universities to offer more practical classes, internships and workplace-based training.

He pointed to two job areas outside tech. He said that for every USD 1 million invested, renewable energy generates three times as many jobs as fossil fuel-based energy, and that nurses per person in developing countries are between five and ten times lower than in advanced economies.

How Is Thailand Using Small AI for Workers?

Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas set out a plan under the banner AI in All, All in AI, and AI for All. Ekniti said nearly 1 million small merchants use a business advisor tool called Whispering Bird to manage inventory and track sales.

Through its Skill Bridge program, the government matches educational institutions with private investors to train local workers for high-tech roles. His plan also aims at capitalizing on major foreign investments in data centers, semiconductors, cloud services, and advanced electronics. On the semiconductor side, Infineon opened a new chip site in Samut Prakan on October 1.

What Comes Next From the IMF This Week?

The IMF in July forecast global growth at 3 percent in 2026, and it will release an updated outlook on Tuesday. That release is scheduled for October 13.

About 18,000 people are expected to attend the meetings this week, including finance officials from the IMF's 191 members. The meetings run in Thailand from October 12 to 18.

What This Means for Job Seekers, and What Should You Do Next?

The warning is aimed at the bottom rung. IMF research on the US finds routine and repetitive jobs declining, and Tharman sees less demand for the first job after graduation. If your first role would be mostly routine, plan for that now, and read what AI means for entry-level jobs and new grads before you choose.

• Add a new skill and show it. Postings with at least one new skill pay about 3% higher in the UK and US, and IMF research on the US finds AI-skilled positions command higher wages.
• Look at where jobs are growing or expected. Construction, data centres and services are where lower-paid positions are increasing in the US, and Banga named primary healthcare, tourism and smallholder agriculture among areas with job-creation potential in developing countries.
• Choose training with work attached. Internships and workplace-based training are what Tharman called for in higher education.
• Read the numbers with their dates. The 40% and 60% shares are from the January 2024 IMF analysis, and they measure exposure, which is not the same as job losses.

Georgieva's closing hope was for AI to take over the tasks people do not want to perform, and Tharman said gradual, task-by-task change would give workers time to adapt, acquire new skills and build on their existing knowledge.

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People Also Asked

Q: Did the IMF say AI will eliminate 40% of jobs?

A: No. The IMF estimates AI could lead to 40% of jobs being augmented, downgraded or eliminated over time, a share the IMF described as exposure to AI in its January 2024 analysis.

Q: Why is AI keeping global growth near 3%?

A: Heavy AI investment is a demand and investment shock that is keeping the world economy growing at around 3 percent despite the energy supply shock, Georgieva said.

Q: Which workers is the IMF chief most worried about?

A: Young people entering work in routine, repetitive jobs are Georgieva's biggest worry, and IMF research on the US finds routine and repetitive jobs are declining while 10% of jobs already require higher AI-related skills.

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