Americans' Fear of Losing Their Job Rose in October, New York Fed Survey Shows

Americans put the average chance of losing their job in the next 12 months at 13.9% in October, up 0.4 percentage point from September, in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. The bigger jump came in views of the wider economy, where unemployment expectations rose more sharply. There was one bright spot. The chance of finding a new job after losing one also rose. For Metaintro readers, this guide walks through each labor number in the release, how it compares with the summer, how other surveys and the Federal Reserve read October, and what a job seeker can do with it now.

What Did the New York Fed Survey Find About Job Loss in October?

The headline worker measure rose in the October survey. That still sits below its 12-month trailing average of 14.3%, and the Reuters story described that expectation as still at relatively low levels.

In September, the same measure had decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 13.5%, its lowest reading since December 2024, a drop that was driven by people aged 40 to 60 and those with annual household incomes over $100,000. In August, it had decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 13.8%, its lowest reading since February 2026.

In October, labor market expectations were mixed, with unemployment and job loss expectations deteriorating while job finding expectations improved. The survey was fielded from October 1 through October 31, 2026, and the results were released on Monday, November 09, 2026.

How High Did Unemployment Expectations Climb in October?

Mean unemployment expectations, the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now, increased by 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%. A reading that high was last hit during the tumultuous early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The increase was driven by those without a college degree.

In the August survey it increased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020, and that increase was broad-based across age, education and income groups. In September it decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 43.9%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 42.4%.

Expectations of an increase in unemployment reached the highest level since April 2020. Conversely, job finding expectations reached their highest level since November 2025, according to the New York Fed's October survey release.

If You Lose Your Job, How Confident Are Workers About Finding Another?

The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one's current job was lost increased by 0.4 percentage point to 46.5% in October, which runs against the rise in unemployment expectations.

In September it had already increased by 0.7 percentage point to 46.1%, above its 12-month trailing average of 45.5%. In August it had decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 45.4%, just below the series 12-month trailing average of 45.5%.

The expected quit rate, the mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months, decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 19.4%, though it stayed above the series' 12-month trailing average of 18.4 percent. In September, the quit measure had increased by 0.4 percentage point to 19.9%, driven by those without a bachelor's degree and those above age 40. In August, the expected quit rate had increased by 0.9 percentage point to 19.5%, a rise driven by those with at most a high school degree and those with annual household incomes under $100,000.

What Do Workers Expect to Earn Over the Next Year?

Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6% in October, and the series remains just below its 12-month trailing average of 2.7%. In September, that measure had declined by 0.3 percentage point to 2.6%. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations had ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in August.

Median expected household income growth declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, and the series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.8% and 3.1% since June 2025.

Median household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.3%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 5.0%. Because that measure tracks dollars, part of the increase households expect to spend could go toward paying higher prices for the same purchases, as the PYMNTS analysis put it.

How Are Prices and Debt Weighing on Households?

Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-year, three-year, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9%, 3.3%, and 3.0%. Those levels are well above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

Median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.9 percentage point to 7.7% for rent, by 0.1 percentage point to 9.3% for the cost of medical care, and by 0.1 percentage point to 7.6% for the cost of college education. Gas was the relief, as median expected price changes decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 4.2% for gas. Food price expectations were unchanged at 5.5%.

In October, delinquency expectations deteriorated. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest level since December 2025. In September, that probability had decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 12.2%, falling below its 12-month trailing average of 12.7%. In August, it had increased by 1.2 percentage points to 13.2%. Expected tax changes also rose, with the median expectation for a year-ahead change in taxes at one's current income increasing by 0.1 percentage point to 3.8%. Savers expected better returns, as the mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.3 percentage points to 31.6%, its highest level since April 2023.

The share of employed consumers who considered job loss at least somewhat likely rose to 28.5% in the PYMNTS Intelligence survey. Among consumers living paycheck to paycheck who were keeping up with bills, 30.7% considered job loss at least somewhat likely, up from 20.7% in September.

Perceptions of household finances improved slightly, with the net share of respondents describing a better financial situation than a year ago increasing, and views of access to credit were roughly unchanged.

What Did the Summer Job Search Survey Show About Offers and Pay?

The New York Fed also runs a deeper jobs module, the SCE Labor Market Survey, which is fielded every four months as a rotating module of the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Its latest results are from the July survey, so they are older than the October numbers above.

The share of individuals searching for a job in the past four weeks rebounded to 24.9 percent from 22.5 percent in March 2026, with the largest increase among those with annual incomes under $60,000.

The average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months decreased by 1.1 ppt to 18.0 percent, its lowest reading since March 2021. The drop was largest for those without a college degree, those younger than age 45, and women.

The average nominal reservation wage, the lowest wage respondents would accept for a new job, continued to increase and reached a series high of $88,387 in July. That increase was most pronounced for men, respondents with a college degree, and those younger than age 45. Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities increased by 2.9, 3.6, and 0.9 percentage points, although satisfaction with pay and promotion stayed close to the series lows reached in March 2026.

Taken together, the July labor market survey showed more people searching, lower expected odds of an offer and a series high for the average reservation wage. That rising floor is the backdrop for anyone planning to negotiate a job offer.

How Does This Fit With Other October Readings on the Job Market?

Elsewhere, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose by 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, and its labor market differential, the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying jobs are hard to get, improved by 2.4 ppts to +5.3%. In that survey, 26.7% of consumers described jobs as plentiful, up from 24.3% in September, while 21.4% described jobs as hard to get, unchanged. Net expectations for the labor market increased by 1.8 ppts to a negative 11.1%, which means more consumers still expect fewer jobs ahead than more. Those preliminary October figures came from a survey period of October 1-21.

Looking six months out, 15.2% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 14.7% in September, and 26.3% expected fewer jobs, down from 27.6%. On pay, 18.7% of consumers expected their income to increase, up from 18.1% in September, while 12.0% expected their income to decline, down from 14.9%. Net expectations for household income over the next six months improved by 3.5 ppts to +6.7%. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased by 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index, based on the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, recovered by 6.9 points to 72.6, only partially reversing three consecutive monthly declines.

Mentions of jobs and employment as an area of concern also ticked up, though to a lesser extent, Conference Board Senior Economist Fergus McCormick said of October's write-in answers, according to the Conference Board's October confidence release.

Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little in the view the Federal Open Market Committee set out in its October 28 statement. It kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, with two members preferring to raise it by 1/4 percentage point.

Fed officials have regularly called the U.S. job market low-hire, low-fire, the same pattern described in this look at the frozen U.S. job market. Fed officials are broadly expected to raise interest rates at the early December policy meeting, the Reuters story added.

How Is the New York Fed Survey Done, and Why Does It Matter?

The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads, and respondents stay in the panel for up to 12 months. That design lets researchers observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time, rather than asking a new group each month.

The SCE launched in 2013 and focuses primarily on expectations about inflation, the labor market and household finance. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.

Inflation readings are what the survey is most closely watched for, in the Reuters account. For workers, the labor market block of the monthly release tracks how people rate their odds of losing a job, finding one and quitting.

What This Means for Job Seekers, and What Should You Do Next?

The October survey does not show layoffs rising. It shows unemployment and job loss expectations deteriorated while job finding expectations improved. That gap is the useful signal.

• Build a cash cushion first. With the expected chance of missing a minimum debt payment rising in October, a few months of savings is what turns a layoff into a search instead of a crisis.
• Search before you need to. Update your resume and reach out to contacts while you are still employed, rather than waiting for a layoff notice.
• Bring numbers to pay talks. With earnings growth expectations unchanged in October and the July reservation wage at a series high, come to any offer with clear numbers on what the role pays elsewhere.
• Widen your options. Respondents without a college degree drove the October rise in unemployment expectations. If that describes you, start widening the range of roles you apply for while you still have a paycheck.

Lacey Kaelani, Metaintro's CEO, puts it this way: A survey about fear is not a pink slip. Use the calm months to line up your next move, so if the market does turn, you are already a step ahead.

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People Also Asked

Q: What is the chance of losing your job according to the New York Fed?

A: In the October survey, the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months was 13.9%, up 0.4 percentage point from September and below its 12-month trailing average.

Q: Are Americans worried about unemployment rising?

A: Yes. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now rose to 45.3 percent, the highest reading since April 2020, with the rise driven by people without a college degree.

Q: How often does the New York Fed release the Survey of Consumer Expectations?

A: The New York Fed summarizes the main results in a monthly New York Fed press release, and the deeper labor market module is fielded every four months.

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