UK Job Vacancies Drop Below 700,000 Even as Unemployment Falls to 4.7%

The number of UK job vacancies fell by 21,000 (2.9%) to 691,000 in July to September 2026, the first time the total has been below 700,000 since February to April 2021. In the same release from the Office for National Statistics, the unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over was estimated at 4.7% in June to August 2026, down by 0.1 percentage points on both the year and the quarter. So fewer people are counted as jobless, but there are also fewer openings to apply for, and the smallest employers are pulling back hardest. For Metaintro readers job hunting in Britain this autumn, this guide sets out what the October figures say, which industries and firm sizes cut openings, how pay is moving, and what to do with that information.

What Did the October ONS Release Actually Show?

The labour market remains broadly flat in 2026, with a slight rise in the employment rate and a small fall in the unemployment rate in the latest quarter, while the number of payrolled employees has fallen over the same period.

The main survey measures for June to August 2026 were these.

• The employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was 75.3%, up 0.2 percentage points on the year and on the quarter.
• The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.7% on the year and on the quarter.
• The economic inactivity rate was 20.9%, down 0.2 percentage points on the year and 0.1 points on the quarter.

The Claimant Count for September 2026 increased on the month and on the year to an estimated 1.701 million, a figure that is provisional and subject to revision. The next release is due on 17 November 2026.

The fall surprised forecasters, as City economists had forecast a rise to 5%.

How Far Have Vacancies Fallen, and How Rare Is a Level This Low?

Vacancies are positions for which employers are actively seeking recruits from outside their business or organisation.

The early estimate puts vacancies at 691,000 in July to September 2026, down 21,000 (2.9%) on April to June. That is the largest quarterly fall since January to March 2026, which was also a fall of 21,000 vacancies. On the year, vacancies decreased by 37,000 (5.1%).

The level is rare by recent standards. The last time vacancies were 691,000 or fewer was in February to April 2021, when there were 660,000 vacancies. Outside the pandemic, the last time there were that few was July to September 2014, when there were 686,000 vacancies.

Two cautions apply. This is an early estimate, and the quarterly change remains within the ONS confidence interval of approximately plus or minus 32,000 vacancies. The headline figure is also a three-month average, which naturally involves some time lag.

The number of vacancies has seen its largest fall since the start of the year, concentrated mainly within smaller businesses, which cite increased labour costs as a key factor, ONS deputy director of labour market statistics David Freeman said, according to the Mirror report on the figures.

Which Industries and Employers Cut Openings the Most?

Openings shrank across most of the economy. Vacancies decreased in 14 of the 18 industry sectors compared with April to June 2026.

• Construction had the largest fall on the quarter, down 20.5%, which was also the largest volume decrease of 7,000 vacancies.
• Other service activities were next, down 19.9% (3,000 vacancies).
• Over the year, professional scientific and technical activities had the largest annual volume decrease of 9,000 vacancies (11.6%), followed by education, which was down 7,000 vacancies (13.3%).

The size of the employer mattered even more than the sector. The largest quarterly decrease was in businesses with 1 to 9 employees, down 21,000 (21.1%) to 77,000 vacancies, the lowest level for that size band outside the pandemic since June to August 2013. Over the year, those smallest firms were down 38,000 (32.8%) vacancies.

The only size band to add openings on the quarter was businesses with 250 to 2,499 employees, up 2,000 (1.2%) vacancies. Feedback from the ONS survey continues to suggest that smaller firms may not be recruiting because of increases in labour costs. Businesses have been hit by increases to National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage, and energy costs have also risen.

How Many Job Seekers Are Competing for Each Opening?

The competition ratio did not get worse this quarter. There were 2.4 unemployed people per vacancy in June to August 2026, down from 2.5 in March to May 2026, and the ratio was also 2.4 in the same period a year ago. That ratio covers June to August, a different window from the July to September vacancy headline.

A second gauge is the vacancy rate, the share of all jobs that are unfilled. The UK vacancy rate was 2.1% in July to September 2026, down 0.1 percentage points both on the quarter and on the year.

Demand is uneven by industry. The industry with the highest demand for workers was mining and quarrying, with a vacancy rate of 3.3%, followed by financial and insurance activities, which has a vacancy rate of 2.9%. The lowest demand was in arts, entertainment and recreation, and education, with vacancy rates of 1.4% and 1.5%.

The UK is still amidst a jobs drought, with vacancies at their lowest for over 12 years outside of the pandemic, Work Foundation director Ben Harrison said, according to the Personnel Today report.

Why Did Unemployment Fall While Payrolls Stayed Weak?

Two comparisons are in circulation. The unemployment rate was 4.7% in June to August 2026, and last month's release put it at 4.9% in May to July 2026, two three-month windows that share June and July. The statistics office compares with the previous quarter, March to May 2026, against which the rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points.

The survey estimate also carries a margin. The quarterly fall of 0.1 points sits inside a sampling variability of plus or minus 0.3 for the change on the quarter, and the statistics office advises users to focus on long term movements in the data.

Tax records tell a softer story. Payrolled employees fell by 111,000 (0.4%) between August 2025 and August 2026, and for June to August they fell by 92,000 (0.3%) over the year and by 37,000 (0.1%) over the quarter.

The newest month looks steadier. The early September estimate showed payrolled employees increasing by 13,000 (0.0%) to 30.3 million between August and September, while still down 66,000 (0.2%) on the year. That September figure is provisional and likely to be revised when more data arrive, so a monthly rise of 13,000 is a first reading.

Is Pay Still Beating Inflation?

Yes, but by a thin margin. Annual growth in regular earnings, excluding bonuses, was 3.7% in June to August 2026, and total earnings including bonuses also grew 3.7%, down from 3.9% on the previous three-month period. Total pay growth was last lower than 3.7% in August to October 2020, when it was 2.8%.

After inflation, real growth measured with CPIH was 0.6% for regular pay and 0.7% for total pay, and measured with CPI it was 0.8% for regular pay and 0.9% for total pay. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, and CPI inflation is expected to rise to 3.4% when the September figures are published.

In cash terms, average weekly earnings were £757 for total earnings and £707 for regular earnings in August 2026. These averages divide total pay by the number of employees, so AWE is not a measure of rates of pay for any one job.

Where you work changes the picture. Regular pay grew 6.3% for the public sector and 3.0% for the private sector, though the public sector figure is still affected by variations in the timing of some pay awards this year. After the public sector, the finance and business services sector showed the strongest regular earnings annual growth rate in June to August 2026, at 3.3%.

Where in the UK Is Unemployment Highest?

The national rate hides wide regional gaps. For June to August 2026, the highest unemployment rate was in London (6.6%), while the lowest was in Northern Ireland (2.1%).

• The West Midlands rate was 5.7%, up 0.5 points on March to May, and Yorkshire and The Humber was 5.2%.
• The highest employment rate was in the South West (79.2%), while the lowest was in the North East (70.5%).

Payroll data point the same way almost everywhere. Payrolled employees decreased for all regions and countries of the UK except Northern Ireland, where it has increased by 0.9%, comparing September 2026 with a year earlier. The ONS warns that some volatility remains for granular breakdowns, where sample sizes are smaller, so regional survey figures are best read alongside longer trends.

What Are Young Workers Facing?

Young people saw a quarterly improvement but a worse year. Work Foundation director Ben Harrison said there are now 715,000 young people aged 16-24 unemployed, down by 28,000 on the quarter, while the number of young people out of work remains 54,000 higher than 12 months ago.

A separate measure covers young people outside work and study. There are around one million young people not in education, employment or training, Learning and Work Institute chief executive Stephen Evans said, and overall employment is more than two million short of the Government's 80% employment rate target.

The government acknowledged the gap. Work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden conceded that many young people needed support to enter the labour market, and he pointed to work with industry, to bring young people back into the labour market.

Agency work is part of this picture. Maxine Bligh of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation warned that guaranteed-hours plans would especially damage employment opportunities for Neets, many of whom get onto the jobs ladder via agency work.

How Did Employers and Economists React?

The reaction split between relief and worry. The interim chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, Maxine Bligh, called the vacancy fall a bitter blow for jobseekers this morning, adding that it shows that employers remain cautious.

At the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, chief economist Suren Thiru described a market running on idle, with employers limiting recruitment and pay awards in response to surging cost pressures and pre-budget policy uncertainty. He called the continued fall in vacancies a flashing red warning light for the labour market.

From the Institute of Economic Affairs, chief economist Valentin Boboc pointed to the smallest businesses accounting for most of the net decline in vacancies, with employers pointing to higher labour costs as a constraint on hiring. The government took the brighter reading, with McFadden describing the UK's employment rate now the third highest in the G7.

The timing adds pressure. This was the final snapshot of the jobs market before John Healey's first budget next week, and Bligh said cuts to employer national insurance contributions (NICs), as well as restoring the NICs threshold, would provide immediate support.

What This Means for Job Seekers, and What Should You Do Next?

In the October release, unemployment fell to 4.7% while vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000. With 2.4 unemployed people per vacancy and the smallest firms cutting the most, the practical response is to aim your search where openings are holding up and to treat each application as worth more effort, especially if you are trying to get hired after a long job search.

• Target employers with 250 to 2,499 staff. The only size band to add openings on the quarter was businesses with 250 to 2,499 employees, while micro firms cut the most. Employers of that size deserve a bigger share of your applications.
• Follow the sectors with the highest vacancy rates. Mining and quarrying and financial and insurance activities had the strongest demand for workers. If your skills transfer, those sectors have a higher share of unfilled jobs.
• Be careful in construction and professional services. Construction vacancies were down 20.5% on the quarter, and professional, scientific and technical openings fell most in volume over the year.
• Use pay data in negotiation. Private sector regular pay grew 3.0%, so ask for a raise that at least keeps pace with CPI inflation.
• Check your region. In London, unemployment was 6.6%, well above the national rate, so a wider commute radius or hybrid roles can widen your pool.
• Watch the next release. The next labour market release is 17 November 2026, and the September payroll figures are provisional and likely to be revised when more data are received.

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People Also Asked

Q: How many job vacancies are there in the UK right now?

A: The early estimate is 691,000 vacancies in July to September 2026, the first time the total has been below 700,000 since February to April 2021.

Q: What is the latest UK unemployment rate?

A: The latest figure, published in October, puts the unemployment rate at 4.7% in June to August 2026, down 0.1 percentage points on the year and on the quarter.

Q: Are UK wages still rising faster than inflation?

A: Yes, narrowly, as real regular pay growth adjusted with CPIH was 0.6% in June to August 2026, with nominal regular pay up 3.7%.

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