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Direct Hiring Demand Monitor

Our track record against BLS JOLTS.

Every edition estimates the next JOLTS job openings print before BLS releases it. Each estimate stays in the log as first published, and is scored against the BLS first print once it appears. Nothing here is revised after the fact.

As of the Nov 5, 2026 edition. Target: JOLTS job openings, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted (thousands).

Scored months

Estimate against the BLS first print.

MonthOur estimateLogged in editionBLS first printErrorDirection
September 20267,286kNov 3, 20267,523k-237kCorrect

No interval yet: it will be calibrated on our own errors once 6 months are scored (1 so far).

Estimate log

Every estimate, as logged.

Each estimate carries the latest JOLTS level forward by our seasonally adjusted change in open postings for the target month. The log ships with every edition as jolts_forecast_log.csv.

EditionTarget monthEstimateFrom JOLTS
Nov 5, 2026October 20267,137k7,523k in September 2026
Nov 4, 2026October 20267,136k7,523k in September 2026
Nov 3, 2026September 20267,286k7,079k in August 2026
Nov 2, 2026September 20267,279k7,079k in August 2026
Nov 1, 2026September 20267,276k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 31, 2026September 20267,275k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 30, 2026September 20267,275k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 29, 2026September 20267,259k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 27, 2026September 20267,247k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 26, 2026September 20267,254k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 25, 2026September 20267,251k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 24, 2026September 20267,250k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 23, 2026September 20267,235k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 22, 2026September 20267,238k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 21, 2026September 20267,249k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 20, 2026September 20267,248k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 19, 2026September 20267,245k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 18, 2026September 20267,244k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 17, 2026September 20267,240k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 16, 2026September 20267,243k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 15, 2026September 20267,244k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 14, 2026September 20267,242k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 13, 2026September 20267,239k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 12, 2026September 20267,195k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 11, 2026September 20267,182k7,079k in August 2026
Oct 10, 2026September 20267,185k7,079k in August 2026

Monthly change

Our month against JOLTS and Indeed.

Month-end to month-end change in open postings at tracked employers, seasonally adjusted, beside the JOLTS openings change and the Indeed Job Postings Index. Preliminary JOLTS months are marked.

MonthMetaintroJOLTSIndeedSame direction as JOLTS
October 2026-5.1%Not yet released0.0%-
September 2026+2.9%+4.6% (preliminary)+1.8%Yes
August 2026-1.8%-2.0%-0.2%Yes

Sources: BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; Indeed Hiring Lab Job Postings Index (CC BY 4.0). Method jolts-openings-carry/1.

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