Australia's Central Bank Finds AI Is Starting to Change…

The Reserve Bank of Australia sees little evidence that AI has had large effects on aggregate employment in advanced economies, but it does see emerging signs of weaker hiring, particularly among younger workers in highly AI-exposed occupations. Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter set this out at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney on 9 November 2026, on the same day the bank published a new staff note on monitoring the early effects of AI on the labour market. Inside firms, the picture is quiet so far. Contacts in the bank's liaison program indicate that AI has not yet impacted most firms' headcount and is not expected to over the next year. Where firms are changing, the most common response is slower hiring or not filling roles. For Metaintro readers who are students, graduates or early in their careers, this guide covers which jobs are seeing fewer new ads, what the data show for young workers, and where AI is adding work.

What Did the Reserve Bank Say About AI and Jobs on 9 November?

In What Happens to the Economy as Intelligence Gets Cheaper, Hunter covered productivity, investment, inflation and work. On jobs, the message has two halves. Overall employment has not been hit hard, yet there are tentative signs of adjustment, through weaker job ad posting and employment outcomes in more AI-exposed occupations, alongside stronger growth in areas where the technology has had less of an impact, particularly for younger workers. Hunter added that these differences are modest, and it's too early to tell whether they reflect AI adoption or other factors.

Hunter also flagged a limit of the headline data. The bank is mindful that aggregate labour indicators may mask disruptive displacement effects that AI could have on individuals looking for work, those whose jobs are directly impacted, and professions that are disproportionately affected.

Adoption itself is moving fast. In the bank's liaison data, the share of firms with no AI adoption falls from around one-third in 2025 to almost zero in 2026, while limited adoption rises from around 40 per cent to approximately 60 per cent.

So far, there is little evidence that AI has had large effects on aggregate employment in advanced economies, although there are emerging signs of weaker hiring, particularly among younger workers in highly AI-exposed occupations, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on 9 November, according to the RBA speech text.

Are Australian Firms Cutting Staff Because of AI?

Mostly, no. Around three-quarters of firms in the liaison program reported no change in headcount from AI over the past year. The rest split three ways, with around 12 per cent reporting slower hiring or not filling roles, around 8 per cent reducing headcount and about 6 percent increasing headcount.

A firm that stops backfilling a role or slows its intake is changing hiring without making anyone redundant. For job seekers, that shows up as fewer openings rather than a wave of layoffs. Research from other countries has tended to find little evidence of economy-wide effects so far, but some signs of weaker employment and job-finding rates, rather than higher layoffs, for entry-level or younger workers in AI-exposed occupations.

Which Jobs Are Seeing Fewer New Ads?

RBA economist Mike Major sorts jobs by how closely their tasks match what current AI can do, using Jobs and Skills Australia's automation exposure mapping by ANZSCO occupation, as set out in the RBA note, and the most exposed group includes software developers, clerical workers and administrative workers. Outcomes are compared using November 2022 as a benchmark, the month generative AI first came into public use.

Job ads are usually one of the first indicators of shifts in firms' labour demand. Data from Jobs and Skills Australia and SEEK give some suggestive evidence that the flow of job ads in the most-exposed occupations has slowed a little more than in other occupations. Within the most-exposed group, the occupations contributing most to the fall in new Jobs and Skills Australia ads since November 2022 are general clerks, software and applications programmers, ICT business and systems analysts, call or contact centre workers and receptionists.

Other flow measures are steadier. There is little evidence to date of differences in job-finding rates or employment-to-unemployment transition rates across occupations with different AI exposure. Stock measures move a little more, as employment growth and total hours worked have been a little weaker in more AI-exposed occupations.

Why Are Young Workers and Graduates the Group to Watch?

Young workers may provide an early signal of AI-related change. If firms respond to AI by reducing demand for junior roles, slowing graduate recruitment, or relying less on workers with limited experience, that should be visible in youth outcomes before it shows in aggregate indicators.

The youth numbers have softened. Unemployment for 15 to 24 year olds fell to about 7 per cent in 2022 and increased to around 11 per cent by early 2026, while their employment-to-population ratio peaked at about 67 per cent in 2022 and eased to around 64 per cent thereafter. For higher-education graduates aged 20 to 24, the unemployment rate rose again after November 2022 to about 6 per cent, against roughly 2 to 4 per cent by early 2026 for older graduates.

Combining age and exposure shows a further gap. Within the most AI-exposed occupations, younger workers appear to have experienced weaker employment outcomes and larger increases in unemployment than older workers, which is not the case for less AI-exposed occupations. In the highest-exposure group, employment for 15 to 24 year olds is volatile and ends below its November 2022 level, while employment for 25 to 64 year olds rises.

There is context that softens this. Conditions remain stronger for young workers than prior to the pandemic, and the strength in youth employment in 2022 partly reflected the exceptionally tight labour market at that time, as well as the strength in non-market sector employment. The same worry about entry-level work is being raised elsewhere, including by the IMF chief on young people entering routine jobs.

There is little evidence to date that AI has materially disrupted the Australian labour market, though the timing, scale and direction of any future impacts are highly uncertain, according to the RBA Insight by Mike Major.

Does AI Exposure Mean Your Job Will Disappear?

Not necessarily, and both the speech and the note make that point. Jobs and Skills Australia estimates that around 4 per cent of workers in Australia are highly exposed to automation from AI, compared with 31 per cent that are highly exposed to AI complementing or augmenting their work. Augmentation generally outweighs automation, and the higher potential for automation is concentrated in routine roles.

Exposure is a measure of potential, not use. The figures capture the potential for AI to affect the tasks people do, rather than how much AI is actually being used. Each task in the Jobs and Skills Australia study gets two scores, one for augmentability and one for automatability, and jobs with more automation exposure also tend to have greater exposure to augmentation.

Hunter put it simply in her speech. Even where AI replaces tasks, it may not replace the whole job. Her examples of AI at work include lawyers who can review and summarise large volumes of documents more quickly and software companies using AI agents to produce batches of code, with software engineer roles transforming to oversee the work.

Where Is AI Adding Work in Australia?

One clear source of new demand is physical. The bank's estimates for realised data centre investment have increased 10-fold (from a very low base) over the past three years. Its liaison program is picking up modest indirect spillovers to supporting industries, including construction and engineering services and infrastructure, particularly energy generation and transmission. Some liaison contacts are reporting that data centre construction is adding to demand for some already-stretched construction skilled trades.

That investment is also in the bank's forecasts. In the board's 3 November decision, growth in overall business investment is forecast to be stronger in the near term, including data centre-related investment.

Employers are asking for AI skills too. Measures of the share of job ads with AI-related keywords have increased rapidly in recent years, though the note cautions that some of the increase may simply reflect greater use of AI-related terminology.

Some employers are seeing more entry-level opportunities, not fewer. In a survey covered in November 2025 of more than 600 senior business decision-makers and HR professionals, 41 per cent of organisations have seen an increase in entry-level opportunities as a result of AI, compared to 19 per cent experiencing a decline. The public sector stood out, with 58 per cent of organisations seeing growth in entry-level roles against 37 per cent in the private sector. That survey is the Australian HR Institute's Australian Work Outlook released last November.

How Does This Fit With Australia's Wider Jobs Market?

The AI signal sits inside a softer market. In September 2026, the unemployment rate increased 0.1ppt to 4.7% in seasonally adjusted terms, and the employment-to-population ratio decreased 0.3ppt to 63.6%. Youth unemployment increased by 0.3ppt to 11.1% in the same month.

Interest rates went up too, after the board on 3 November decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent, with six members voting to increase and three voting to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.60 per cent. In its forecasts, employment is expected to continue to grow, but the unemployment rate is projected to rise by more than expected in the August forecasts.

This matters for reading the AI data. Youth labour market outcomes are volatile and more cyclical than aggregate series. The note warns that some of the subsequent weakness since 2022 may therefore reflect broader easing in labour market conditions rather than AI adoption. Similar youth-and-AI patterns have been studied in Europe, such as Banque de France research on young workers in AI-exposed jobs.

Why Is the RBA Not Calling This AI Displacement Yet?

The note is careful about cause and effect. The patterns in the note should not be immediately interpreted as evidence of AI displacement, because exposure measures capture potential effects and the same groups may face other pressures.

One of those pressures is how people work. Exposure scores may be tied up with post-pandemic changes in work-from-home practices, a link raised in a Warwick and Oxford working paper that the RBA cites.

The data are also dated. The latest complete occupation data are for February 2026, and the switch from ANZSCO to OSCA occupation classification means more recent data will require a slightly revised mapping. On the other side, AI may also stimulate demand for some types of work by lowering costs and prices or generating new types of work.

The range of views on AI's payoff is wide. Estimates for its effect on productivity growth over the next decade run from over 2 per cent per annum to just 0.1 per cent, and around 35 per cent of firms report no productivity gains from AI.

What This Means for Young Job Seekers, and What Should You Do Next?

Our take is that the warning is about the front door, not the exit. AI has not yet impacted most firms' headcount, while the softness sits in weaker job ad posting for exposed roles and in outcomes for young workers. If you are trying to get in, the slower flow of new ads in those roles is what to plan around.

Know which entry roles are thinning. General clerks, software and applications programmers, ICT business and systems analysts, call or contact centre workers and receptionists contribute most to the decrease in new Jobs and Skills Australia job ads among the most-exposed occupations. If you target these, apply widely and early.
Pitch yourself as the person who uses the tool. With far more workers highly exposed to AI augmenting their work than to automation, show employers concrete examples of work you have done faster or better with AI.
Look at the build-out jobs. Data centre investment is creating modest indirect spillovers to construction and engineering services, and energy transmission.
Mark the next data date. The October labour force release is due on 19/11/2026.

Lacey Kaelani, Metaintro's CEO, puts it this way: AI is changing the front door of work before it changes the exit. If you are early in your career, build the skills that sit next to the tools, and apply where the openings still are.