UNDP Says Jobs Are Projected for Only 400 Million of 1.2 Billion Young People in Developing Economies

About 800 million young people entering the labour market in developing economies over the coming years will not find jobs unless countries act, the head of the United Nations Development Programme warned on 13 October. UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo put the numbers plainly, telling reporters that 1.2 billion young people will be graduating from school and going into the labour market over the next 15 years, and that for only 400 million of these there will be jobs. The warning came as UNDP launched two initiatives to boost investment and employment, which aim to help developing economies attract investment, strengthen business environment and create more and better jobs. For Metaintro readers who are students, recent school leavers or early-career workers in fast-growing economies, the useful part is not the headline gap. It is what the projection rests on, which sectors are still expected to hire, and what the new programmes are actually set up to do.

What Did the UNDP Chief Say About Jobs for Young People?

De Croo spoke at a press briefing in New York, joining from Bangkok, where he was attending the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings. He said that if you look at the next 15 years, there will be 1.2 billion young people graduating from school, and that for 800 million of these, there will not be jobs.

Why Do the Figures Say 15 Years in One Place and a Decade in Another?

Two time frames are in circulation, the next 15 years in De Croo's spoken briefing and over the next decade in UNDP's written release. An estimated 1.2 billion young people will enter the workforce over the next decade, while only 400 million jobs are projected to be created, in UNDP's written version.

1.2 billion young people across emerging economies will reach working age over the next 10 years, yet only 420 million jobs are currently expected to be generated, in World Bank figures from May 2025. World Bank figures set young people reaching working age against the jobs currently expected to be generated, and UNDP's release sets young people who will enter the workforce against the 400 million jobs projected to be created.

Is the 800 Million Gap Fixed, or Can It Change?

It is a projection, and De Croo said the job projections are based on the current state of technology.

In De Croo's reading, the gap is driven by demographics, and in many developing countries the median age is between 18 and 25. That is not going to go by itself. This is the result of policy, he said.

Asked whether artificial intelligence was a factor, De Croo said the projections could change through active labour policies.

Job creation is actually the only real sustainable way for people to grow out of poverty, UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo said in the UN News story on the briefing.

What Are the Investment Accelerator and the Jobs for Prosperity Facility?

UNDP launched two programmes, one on investment and one on jobs. The Investment Accelerator will support governments in improving investment policies and regulations, developing investment-ready projects and pipelines, engaging investors and moving projects from preparation to implementation.

The Jobs for Prosperity Facility is the jobs programme. It will help countries identify sectors with strong job-creation potential, align skills with employer demand and address barriers to business investment and hiring. It is also meant to support the development of sector-specific pipelines that can create more and better-paid jobs.

Both sit inside UNDP's longer plan. The two programmes are among UNDP's five new corporate flagship initiatives supporting delivery of its Strategic Plan 2026 to 2029. UNDP supports more than 100 countries in strengthening their financing frameworks and has identified more than 700 SDG investment opportunity areas across over 50 countries.

No vacancies, job-creation budget or application route for individuals appear in the launch announcement, which describes work with governments, development banks and private investors.

Who Is Backing the Plan, and Where Are the Pilots?

The partners are development lenders. The programmes will be supported by expanded partnerships with the World Bank Group, the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). UNDP also planned to sign memoranda of understanding with the EIB and the EBRD during the Annual Meetings.

UNDP recently signed a Cooperation Framework with the World Bank Group to mobilize finance for development and scale solutions that drive jobs and growth. Under that framework, pilot initiatives are already underway in Nepal, Yemen, Haiti, Lebanon and Ghana, focused on policy and governance reforms meant to draw more private investment.

The launch took place at a high-level dialogue during the 2026 World Bank Group-IMF Annual Meetings, opened by World Bank Group President Ajay Banga and co-hosted by Generali, which has worked with UNDP since 2022, with the Office of the Italian Executive Director at the World Bank Group. The dialogue highlighted the role of insurance and risk finance in attracting investment. In 2025, natural catastrophes in Asia caused $65 billion in economic losses, of which only $5 billion was insured.

Why Are Borrowing Costs Part of a Jobs Story?

The median developing economy government now spends about 9.5 percent of revenue on interest payments alone, in UNDP's No Time to Recover report, published on October 11, 2026. That is more than three times higher than in the median high-income country, and not seen this high since the year 2001. Interest payments take more than 20 percent of revenue for about 17 percent of countries.

De Croo described a triple shock of high energy costs, one of the most pronounced El Niño events since 1950, and very high borrowing costs. Across 130 countries, retail gasoline and diesel prices are up by 26 and 38 percent on average since the conflict began, meaning the Middle East crisis.

A growing debt service burden and emergency relief measures are siphoning funds away from long-term sustainable development investments, in UNDP's assessment. All 26 UNDP country offices surveyed expect the worst is yet to come, and the number of people in multidimensional poverty has risen for the first time since 2010.

What Does the ILO Data Show About Young Workers in 2025?

The global youth unemployment rate rose to 12.4% in 2025, equivalent to 67 million unemployed people aged 15 to 24 years, in the ILO's Global Employment Trends for Youth 2026. The share of young people not in employment, education or training increased slightly to 20%, affecting more than 257 million people.

In developing economies, the challenge remains creating enough decent jobs to absorb growing young populations. Nearly nine in ten young workers aged 15 to 29 in low- and lower-middle-income countries are employed informally, which limits their access to stable incomes and social protection. Low unemployment rates conceal widespread labour market insecurity, as many young people cannot afford to remain unemployed.

Some regions stand out. In 2025, youth unemployment stood at 26.2% in the Arab States and 22.6% in Northern Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa faces especially strong demographic pressures alongside too few decent jobs. Richer economies are not immune. In Northern America, youth unemployment rose from 8.3% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2025.

A generation that cannot find decent work cannot build its future with confidence, ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo said in the ILO press release on youth unemployment.

Which Sectors Are Still Expected to Create Jobs?

De Croo said sectors such as care, agriculture and tourism would still create many jobs even as AI accelerates.

World Bank Group President Ajay Banga named five sectors where we believe jobs can get created in the emerging markets in May 2025, namely infrastructure, agriculture as a business, primary healthcare, tourism, and manufacturing for local and regional consumption. On healthcare he was specific about the roles, saying you will employ nurses, you will employ medical diagnostic readers, you will employ PPE manufacturing, you will employ midwives for deliveries.

An estimated 6.1% of jobs held by young people aged 15 to 29 are in occupations highly exposed to AI-related changes, and many of these overlap with middle-skilled occupations that have declined for young people since 2023, particularly clerical and administrative roles. At the same time, demand continues to grow in some knowledge-based technical occupations in fields like science, health and engineering. The jobs traditionally used as a first step, including clerical and administrative roles, service and sales occupations, manufacturing-related jobs and some technical occupations, are shrinking.

On the first day of the same meetings in Bangkok, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva named young people entering routine jobs as her biggest AI worry.

Where Does the Coverage Agree, and Where Does It Split?

Around 800 million young people entering the workforce in developing nations over the next 15 years will fail to find jobs unless immediate policy actions are taken, in the BSS wire story carried by the Daily Sun in Dhaka. It lines up with the briefing quote of 1.2 billion young people graduating from school, going into the labour market over the same 15 years. The BSS version uses only that 15-year frame and leaves out the decade that appears in UNDP's written release. The pilot list also agrees, with BSS writing that pilot projects have already commenced in Nepal, Yemen, Haiti, Lebanon, and Ghana.

The debt figure is where the accounts start to differ. Middle-income developing countries are now spending 9.5 percent of their total government revenues solely on debt interest payments, which is three times higher than high-income nations and the highest level in 25 years, in the BSS telling. The median developing economy government now spends about 9.5 percent of revenue on interest payments alone, a level not seen this high since the year 2001. That compares with the median high-income country, not high-income nations as a whole.

The poverty number splits further. An additional 130 million people worldwide could plunge into extreme poverty, in the BSS write-up. About 130 million more people would fall below the $6.85-a-day poverty line this year if every country let the energy and food price shock pass fully through to households, and these figures represent potential exposure, not observed poverty increases. The matching extreme poverty estimate is smaller, at 66 million more below the extreme poverty line of $2.15-a-day.

The insurance example carries a different year. The 2015 climate disasters in Asia that caused $65 billion in economic damage but had only $5 billion covered by insurance appear in the BSS account, while the UNDP release dates the same losses to 2025, saying in 2025, natural catastrophes in Asia caused $65 billion in economic losses.

For a job seeker, the takeaway is practical. The 800 million figure appears in both the UN News story and the BSS version, and the five pilot countries match across all three accounts, though UNDP's written release gives 1.2 billion and 400 million over the next decade rather than 15 years. The debt and poverty figures carry conditions in No Time to Recover that the BSS version drops, so quote them from the UNDP document itself, with its wording, if you use them in an application essay, a scholarship statement or an interview answer.

What This Means for Young Job Seekers, and What Should You Do Next?

The gap is a warning about the direction of travel, not a verdict on any one person. For a young person in a fast-growing economy, the useful move is to read the same signals the planners are reading.

• Follow the sectors the lenders are funding. Energy and infrastructure, agribusiness, healthcare, tourism are areas where the World Bank Group's private sector arms support business growth, and Banga called them sectors that create large numbers of jobs. Banga's healthcare list names nurses, medical diagnostic readers and midwives as roles that building primary healthcare would employ.
• Lean toward technical skills that are growing. Demand is growing in some knowledge-based technical occupations in fields like science, health and engineering, while clerical and administrative roles are shrinking. Pick courses that build skills you can show, not only certificates.
• Watch your own country's pilot work. If you live in one of the pilot countries, Nepal, Yemen, Haiti, Lebanon and Ghana, follow national announcements on the policy and governance reforms the pilots focus on.
• Weigh formal against informal offers. With nearly nine in ten young workers aged 15 to 29 in low- and lower-middle-income countries employed informally, a formal contract with social protection is worth asking about directly when you compare offers.
• Build the basics employers expect. Employers say new graduates arrive missing the basics.

Small business finance can also shape where jobs appear, as in the World Bank small-business programme behind projected jobs for Nigerian job seekers.

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People Also Asked

Q: How many young people does UNDP say will not find jobs?

A: UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo warned that of 1.2 billion young people graduating from school over the next 15 years, there will be jobs for only 400 million, and for 800 million there will not be jobs unless countries act (the written UNDP release says over the next decade).

Q: What is the Jobs for Prosperity Facility?

A: It is a UNDP programme that will help countries identify sectors with strong job-creation potential, align skills with employer demand and address barriers to business investment and hiring. It works through governments, and the launch announcement lists no application route for individuals.

Q: What is the global youth unemployment rate?

A: The global youth unemployment rate rose to 12.4% in 2025, equivalent to 67 million unemployed people aged 15 to 24 years, while the share not in employment, education or training increased slightly to 20%.

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