AI and Imported Talent Shrank Hong Kong's 2028 Worker Gap From 180,000 to 130,000

Hong Kong now expects to be short about 130,000 workers by 2028, down from the 180,000 it forecast two years ago. The smaller number is real progress, yet the shortage itself has not moved much. It is still concentrated in trades, technicians and frontline service jobs, and the public schemes built around it decide who gets hired first, who can be brought in from outside and who gets trained for free. At Metaintro we read workforce projections for where the openings actually are, and this one comes with a government sector table, an immigration rulebook and a free training catalogue that most coverage skipped. Here is what each of them tells a job seeker.

What Changed in the 2028 Forecast?

The headline figure fell by 50,000 in a mid-term update of the Labour and Welfare Bureau projection, which Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun presented the day after the city's first five-year plan and annual Policy Address.

Three causes were given at the press conference: changes in the economic structure, the effectiveness of talent attraction policies and the impact of rapid artificial intelligence development on manpower demand over the past one or two years.

The counterfactual is the bigger number. Without policy intervention, the 2028 gap could have reached 300,000, which means imported talent and AI together are doing a lot of work in the new forecast.

Our previous manpower projection found that we will be short of 180,000 workers by 2028, but in the latest study, to be announced in detail next week, the shortfall will be reduced to 130,000, Chris Sun told the South China Morning Post.

The sector breakdown for the new round has not been released yet. Until it is, the most detailed public map of where Hong Kong lacks people remains the bureau's 2023 Manpower Projection, which analysed 17 selected industries covering over 2.8 million employed persons, or 80% of the labour force.

Which Sectors Are Short, and by How Much?

Construction and city operation top the government's own table, and they are not close to the rest.

The 2028 projection puts construction short 45,000 to 55,000 workers and city operation short 39,000 to 44,000. City operation is the bureau's label for the trades that keep buildings and services running, including electrical and mechanical services, lift maintenance, telecommunications, IT, security, automobile repair, beauty care and real estate services.

Two growth hubs follow. The innovation and technology centre and the aviation hub are each projected to be short 18,000 to 23,000 workers, and the report flags construction, city operation, innovation and technology and aviation as particularly vulnerable.

Service sectors fill out the list. Accommodation and food is projected at 14,000 to 19,000 short, health services at 13,000 to 18,000, and tourism and manufacturing at 9,000 to 14,000 each.

By occupation group, the worst position belongs to skilled technical workers, projected at 60,000 to 65,000 short in 2028. That group is only 401,000 people, 12% of the employed workforce, which makes the gap proportionally the steepest in the report.

Skilled technical workers face a projected 2028 shortfall of 60,000 to 65,000, the worst of any occupation group in the government's own table.

Which Jobs Does the Government Say It Needs?

The report names occupations, which is more useful to a job seeker than a sector total.

In construction, the in-demand roles are bar benders and fixers, woodworkers and refrigeration, air-conditioning and ventilation mechanics. In city operation, the list is lift and escalator mechanics, electrical and mechanical mechanics and electricians, telecommunication technicians and building services maintenance technicians.

Aviation needs aircraft maintenance technicians and airport equipment and loader operators. Transport and trade need smart logistics machinery operators, maritime and vehicle maintenance technicians, and drivers.

At the professional end, the same report lists I&T specialists, data analysts, fintech and blockchain specialists, actuaries, engineers, pilots, doctors and nurses. For service workers the named roles are flight attendants, cooks, salespersons, waiters and security guards.

The report also sketches the new skills employers will look for. It lists basic digital literacy including AI application, data analytical skills and adaptability, and names emerging roles such as AI application engineers and AI risk experts.

Why Won't the Technician Shortage Shrink With the Headline?

Because it is driven by retirements already baked into the population, not by forecast assumptions.

The bureau counts 104,000 skilled technical workers aged 60 and over, or 26% of the group, with a median age of 50. Manual labourers are older still, with 102,000 aged 60 and over and a median age of 53. Across the whole workforce, about 513,000 employed persons are 60 or older.

The wider population is ageing on the same track. The number of residents aged 65 and over is projected to rise by 380,000 between 2023 and 2028, and the median age of the population climbs from 48.3 to 50.2.

AI can reduce how many clerks or analysts an office needs. It does far less for the lift mechanic or electrician who retires next year, which is why the trades are the part of this story most likely to survive any revision.

What Happens Before an Employer Can Import Workers?

Local job seekers are supposed to be offered the vacancy first, and the rules are written down.

Under the Enhanced Supplementary Labour Scheme, employers can import workers only at technician level or below, and only for vacancies they have genuine difficulties filling locally. Each vacancy requires a local recruitment exercise set by the Labour Department, during which the department actively matches and refers suitable local job seekers for interview.

The scheme also sets a pay floor. Imported workers must be paid no less than the median monthly wages of local workers in comparable positions, on contracts of no more than 24 months, with the same labour law protection as local staff.

Construction and transport sit outside it. The scheme does not take applications from sectors with their own importation schemes, which covers construction, transport and residential care homes.

Imported labour also funds local training. Employers pay a levy of $400 for each month of the contract, up to 24 months, and it goes to the Employees Retraining Board to train local workers.

For a local worker, the practical point is that registering with the Labour Department puts you in the referral pipeline for the same vacancies employers are trying to fill from abroad.

What Free Training Can Local Workers Get?

More than most people realise, and the eligibility rules widened recently.

The Employees Retraining Board serves eligible employees of Hong Kong aged 15 or above. Since January 2025 it has removed the cap on education level and opened its courses to the entire local labour force, adding at least 15,000 training places a year in 2025 to 2026.

The costs depend on your situation. Placement-tied courses are free for unemployed permanent residents and eligible residents, trainees earning $15,000 a month or less can apply for a full fee waiver, and those earning more than $15,000 up to $23,500 can pay a subsidised fee.

There is money attached. Trainees on placement-tied courses of seven days or more can claim a retraining allowance, once a year at most, normally paid four to six weeks after the course ends. Training bodies then offer placement referrals to trainees who reach at least 80% attendance.

The course list already tracks the AI shift. The board's current catalogue includes part-time certificates in generative AI for business and administrative work, large language model applications, AI-aided fraud detection for financial services and cyber security technician training.

The technical pipeline has its own subsidy. The government will add an extra HK$1,000 monthly training allowance for no fewer than 5,600 registered apprentices, alongside around 4,000 construction technology training places, while Upskill Hong Kong runs an 18-month AI campaign from the first half of 2027 expected to reach around 40,000 employees.

Is There Help for Young Workers?

Yes, and it is aimed at people with little or no experience.

A new programme will create 10,000 additional full-time roles with business over two years from the first quarter of 2027, each lasting at least six months and aimed at first-time entrants. The government covers HK$6,000 a month or up to one-third of the salary, whichever is lower, for six months.

Eligibility is narrow but open on education. The scheme is for permanent residents aged under 29 and carries no educational requirement.

Who Can Be Recruited From Outside Hong Kong?

The rules favour high earners and graduates of listed universities, not trades.

The Top Talent Pass Scheme does not require a job offer. Category A covers people earning HK$2.5 million or more a year, Category B covers graduates of eligible universities with at least three years of work experience in the past five, and Category C covers recent graduates with less, subject to an annual quota. Stays run 36 months for Category A and 24 months for the other two.

The official talent list site targets named professions, from actuaries and fintech professionals to data scientists, cyber security specialists, naval architects and marine engineers. It covers 60 professions, and the next review will focus on adding more AI roles, with completion aimed for next year.

The rules are loosening further. Start-up founders under the scheme will no longer need to show proof of company income at renewal, and the Policy Address also expanded the list of eligible universities and relaxed several visa categories.

The gap between the two lists is the useful signal. The talent routes pull in professionals, while the biggest shortages are in trades that those routes barely touch. That leaves local technicians with the least competition from imported talent.

What This Means for Job Seekers, and Where Should You Aim?

The headline number moved and the job map did not. If you are choosing a direction, aim at the rows in the government's own table rather than the total.

If you are local and open to a trade, the case is strong. Construction, city operation and aviation maintenance combine a retirement wave, a named list of in-demand roles and funded training. An apprenticeship or an ERB placement-tied course is a government paying you to enter the jobs it is struggling to fill.

If you work in an office role, treat the AI line in the forecast as a warning and a map. The same projection that lowered the gap because of AI also names AI application, data analysis and digital literacy as the essential skills of 2028, and the ERB and Upskill Hong Kong courses are built for exactly that.

If you are young with little experience, the new subsidised roles open in 2027 and have no education bar. If you are abroad, check the Talent List and the Top Talent Pass Scheme categories before counting on a shortage number, because eligibility, not demand, decides who gets a visa.

And watch for the full mid-term report. Once the full sector tables for the new figure are published, they will show whether the reduction came from the trades or from office work, and that answer matters more than the headline.

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People Also Asked

Q: How many workers will Hong Kong be short by 2028?

A: The latest mid-term update puts the gap at about 130,000 workers, down from the 180,000 in the previous projection. Without policy intervention it could have reached 300,000.

Q: Which Hong Kong jobs face the biggest shortage?

A: Skilled technical workers, with a projected shortfall of 60,000 to 65,000 in 2028. The named roles include lift and escalator mechanics, electricians, bar benders and fixers, aircraft maintenance technicians and building services technicians.

Q: Can local workers get free training in Hong Kong?

A: Yes. The Employees Retraining Board offers free placement-tied courses to unemployed eligible residents aged 15 or above, fee waivers for low earners and a retraining allowance on courses of seven days or more.

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